The IEA indicated in its report that the long-awaited rebalancing of the global oil market has begun but is likely to last through 2016 as the supply overhang is expected to persist through 2016. Overall it was a supportive report but one that is still projecting supply to outstrip demand through 2016.
Crude oil prices are modestly higher for the second day in a row after a mildly bullish API oil inventory report release late yesterday. The gains in oil are primarily driven by short covering after a significant decline in prices that began in mid-June.
Crude prices are drifting lower ahead of this morning’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) oil inventory report after the API reported a modest draw in crude, but a significant build in distillate fuel.
Yesterday’s expiration of the August Nymex WTI contract was mostly uneventful with the market trading in a relatively tight trading range. So far this morning the market is on the defensive after the API reporting a surprise build in total U.S. crude oil stocks.
Crude oil prices have been in a selling mode for most of this week on a combination of the evolving situation in Greece, a sell-off in Chinese equities and the growing possibility of an Iranian nuclear deal. All three areas can potentially lead to the current oversupply of oil growing even further.
Crude oil markets got a pop as they tried to look beyond this Greek debt debacle to the expectations that U.S. oil output will continue to fall and tropical Storm Bill in the Yucatan Peninsula may slow operations in refineries and oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.