As Russia smoked Saudi Arabia in the World Cup, crude oil ministers from those two countries signaled that indeed OPEC and Non-OPEC countries will be raising oil output. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister said it is “inevitable” that OPEC and Russian production will rise by what he says is a "reasonable and moderate" amount. T
Fundamentals: The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by a quarter point yesterday and signaled that two more hikes are on the way this year. The Fed’s statement was overhauled and pointed to stronger growth and spending. However, they did maintain their “symmetric 2% inflation objective”. This arguably relieved some thoughts that the Fed would allow themselves to move faster than a gradual pace if inflation picked up.
President Donald Trump is fed up with crude oil prices and tweeted that “oil prices are too high, OPEC is at it again. Not good!” The Fed raised interest rates and Fed Chair Jerome Powell weighed in on oil and its impact on inflation and what they may mean for the economy going forward. This comes as surging U.S. refinery demand for oil shadowed over a 100,000-barrel a day increase in U.S. oil production.
It is Fed day and they are expected to raise interest rates a quarter point at 1:00 p.m. Central. What’s unknown though is the tone in which they will do such. There was a report yesterday that Fed Chair Powell wants to hold a press conference after each meeting. The Dollar jumped, Treasuries ticked down and equity markets hit a midday snag. Doing this would essentially make each meeting live, giving the FOMC additional opportunities to hike.
While the markets await the outcome from the Fed meeting and oil traders fret about whether OPEC and non-OPEC might raise production, as well as the weekly supply report, the biggest threat to the price of crude oil and the global economy may be the lack of spare oil production capacity. Reuters reports that global spare oil production capacity could fall from more than 3% of global demand now to about 2%, its lowest since at least 1984, if OPEC, Russia and other producers decide to increase output when they meet on June 22-23. Some analysts say spare capacity could even fall below 2%, after years of low oil prices drove down investments in new production across the industry to a historic low.
So, what about that wedge in the Nasdaq I was looking at last week? The upward momentum stalled 61 days from the prior high. Oddly enough, it was tech stocks that stalled last week while McDonald's had that big day on Thursday which drove the Dow. MCD is rated seventh in the Dow in terms of its weighting. A lot of other Dow names started well but backed off. On the same day all the FAANGs got hit.
A funny thing happened on the road to Singapore. The Group of 7 joint communique was agreed to by all nations until the Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau made a statement after President Trump was on the plane going to try to rid the world of the North Korean regime’s nuclear weapons and said that “U.S. tariffs were kind of insulting” and he “will not be pushed around’ set off President Trump and his advisors.
The coming week will have some serious breakouts, blowouts, and wide ranges in prices, as well as continued “freight train-steamroller” trending behaviors. Gold is in a more extreme narrow range with strongly-trending monthly and inside weekly pivots more breakout-ish than last week as of Thursday. evening.