The coming week, starting Monday, July 16, should present more sideways markets than breakouts, although gold and the Eurodollar currently (as of Friday morning on July 13) have pivots with breakout lower setups. Of course, the Eurodollar extreme candle reversal up signal and the gold moving average supports on multiple time frames with bullish candlestick patterns can cause a lower-pivots rejection in each/either symbol. Such a rejection would be bullishly volatile, whilst various groups of traders would, in theory, battle it out.
The S&P 500 closed at the highest level since Feb. 1 for the second time this week and extended gains overnight, this is surely a breakout isn’t it? Not so fast, we will discuss this in the technical section below. Global equity markets are all higher and being led by the Nikkei, which is up almost 2%, about half of which came during yesterday’s U.S. hours (Nikkei futures are up about 1%). This strong 48-hour move comes as the Japanese yen has completely broken down through long-term technical support.
Expect more crude oil price volatility as the global oil market can flip from a global supply surplus to a global supply deficit at the drop of a hat. The market is trying to assess whether more sources of oil will get us to the point where daily global oil production is once again ahead of our daily consumption. So far it has not.
Global equity markets are back in the green this morning and cueing off a softer trade rhetoric from China. The market is focused on China’s response to the White House’s third wave of tariffs worth $200 billion and ultimately, as we pointed out here yesterday, China only imported $130 billion of U.S. goods in 2017.
The biggest crude oil draw since 2016 was not enough to stop oil from a major drop in price. A slew of oil supply side stories includes the resumption of Libyan crude exports, an increase in Saudi Arabia crude output, possible waivers on U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil and reports that oil is on the agenda when President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet next month.
EOG Resources is the premier onshore U.S. crude oil producer, capable of sustaining many years of very high production growth supported by its exceptional acreage position and industry-leading technical advances. The stock is currently trading at $103 per share (as of May 5) and has an upside target of $209 per share, which is more than double its current price, over the next 12 months assuming a $62 per barrel WTI crude oil price.
Less than an hour after the S&P 500 settled at the highest level since February 1st, global equity markets found themselves on the defensive after the White House provided a list and announced it would plan to move forward with a 10% tariff on an additional $200 billion of Chinese goods. This is where things escalate to a trade war and once again, we emphasize at these levels, the market has not priced in a full-blown trade war.
The Trump Administration has a knack for cooling down crude oil prices every time they look to be getting out of control. Trade War talk, potential wavers on an Iranian oil embargo, and telling Germany that they are captive to Russia because of the reliance on them for energy supply, not to mention the resumption of some Libyan oil exports cooled off prices as they were boiling over due to rapidly falling U.S. supply.