As the calendar turned over to May, U.S. weather moved to the front and center of the market’s focus. The dominant feature for the month was the record or near-record rainfall in the central U.S. In the first half of the month, southern Missouri and the adjacent areas were "ground zero," and in the second half, it was the state of Indiana.
Profit taking Monday diminished the wet weather forecasts that provided support to our wheat markets for most of the trading session. All areas in the HRW and SRW regions saw 0.20 - 2.00 inches over the weekend. Eastern Oklahoma saw up to 3 inches. The extended forecast shows below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.
As the old saying goes “Rising tides lift all boats” and we say that yesterday as the run-up in corn and wheat pulled the bean complex higher. Heavy rain and snow totals were the fuel for the rally. It is estimated that 10% of the bean crop had been planted, the question now is how many of these acres will have to be replanted. The good news for producers is there is plenty of time yet to get the crop in. We might even pick up acres if the weather doesn’t break fast as it will potentially force some corn acres into beans.
As we prepare for the month of May, it appears that the relative calm that we have enjoyed is about to end. We might even describe the last four months as ones of extreme calm. For soybeans, we had the narrowest January through April trading range since 2001; and for corn, it was the narrowest range since 2006. In fact, corn, wheat, soybeans and soy products all ended April within 1.5% of where they closed the month of March.
OPEC is committed to extending production cuts as the global oil market continues to see inventories fall. While the U.S. oil rig count rose, it plummeted in Canada offsetting the gains. This comes after Morgan Stanley reports that crude stockpiles are, "less visible, as supply in Asia and in floating storage have fallen by 72 million barrels this year."