March cocoa futures hit a multiyear high last week as the market attempted to touch 3000. The supply side of the fundamental equation is bullish.
Concerns about the coronavirus have affected the equity and futures markets. Asian demand for Cocoa has come into play. If this virus affects exports in large grinding nations, Asia specifically, we can see prices continue to move lower.
Grinding data this week has cocoa futures testing highs from 2018. The March contract reached 2729 on Thursday. Asian demand increased and provided market support – leading to more speculative buying.
March cocoa futures have rallied this past trading week as we leave 2019 and enter 2020. After the new year, the contract continued the move higher back towards 2550
As of Thursday, cocoa futures were down for the fourth straight session. After the trade above 2600, traders took profit, causing some of this sell-off.
As we head into Thanksgiving and the holiday schedule, cocoa has moved lower. After making new highs the market has turned volatile. The current channel looks negative..
The rally in Cocoa futures higher this week is all technical. Once 2560 price level broke, 2600 was the next price level traders needed for the market to close above.
Current weather conditions are supporting cocoa prices. Rain in key growing regions could cause supply issues.
Cocoa has been a macro trade of late. The December contract is range bound in this recent consolidation.
Looking at the December cocoa chart, two stories are being told – a supply and demand battle, and technical levels are guiding prices.