Most Federal Reserve policymakers think the central bank should take steps to begin trimming its $4.5 trillion balance sheet later this year as long as the economic data holds up, minutes from their last meeting showed.
On the weekly chart of the 30-year US Treasury bond futures contract, we observe that prices are breaking out higher so far this week as last week tested the long-term lower upward sloping blue trendline of the blue trend channel.
European shares edged lower on Tuesday, after falls on Asian bourses, and low-risk government debt yields fell as political risks from a meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders to the French presidential election kept investors on edge.
Global investors raised their U.S. equity holdings to an 18-month high in January, betting fiscal stimulus from U.S. President Donald Trump will spur growth, but doubts are growing whether he can deliver as much as markets have priced in.
The USH traded in a below-average 2-20 point weekly range and settled up 16-ticks on the week and down 10-ticks on the session at 152-09. As expected the Ten-year successfully ground higher and tested and rejected my upper weekly and key resistance targets at 125-02 and 125-10.
We first focus on WTI crude oil. On the weekly chart, this market still looks strong, and looks to be a buyer's market. We believe that $58 per barrel is not out of reach. A key resistance trendline has been broken and that is a big technical signal.
Remember over a year ago when they first raised hikes-they huffed and puffed warning everyone that they would raise rates several times in 2016 and viola nothing happened until now. Now they are repeating the same thing all over again. To illustrate how bad this economy take into consideration that the Fed has raised rates only twice in the last decade; the economy was a lot stronger in 2006 and 2007 than it is today. Yellen’s statement below illustrates how the Fed is positioning itself so that it can pull another “oops we were wrong once again” moment.
Interest rate hikes are back on the radar at the Bank of Japan, for the first time in a decade, as the U.S. Federal Reserve's tightening cycle pushes global bond yields higher, heralding a new era for central banks retreating from post-crisis stimulus.