Agriculture

April lean hogs fell victim to the spillover effect from the outside market turmoil but managed to hold their own better than we had anticipated. If outside markets can find their footing and stabilize at the least, we think there is an opportunity in the near term.
The U.S. Dollar continues to be trading near multi-month highs which is throwing a wet blanket on grain markets. The risk-off trade created by the spread of coronavirus has and will continue to affect near term money flow in commodities, including corn.
The USDA’s Ag Forum had corn acres at 94 million acres, far from friendly but short of apocalyptic. The USDA’s Prospective Plantings report will be out next month and hold a little more weight.
April live cattle traded on both sides of unchanged before finishing yesterday’s session in positive territory. The market ran up against our technical resistance pocket but failed to chew through it,
Soybeans have seen a choppy overnight session, trading both sides of unchanged. Phase-1 is officially underway, a silver lining. The bulls will want to see a weekly export business increase in the coming weeks as verification that Phase-1 holds more hope and not just hot air.
March cocoa futures hit a multiyear high last week as the market attempted to touch 3000. The supply side of the fundamental equation is bullish.
March corn futures slipped lower yesterday but remain trapped within the range amid the time of year that offers a lack of news to break the market out or down.
March corn futures managed to rally yesterday as shorts started to cover positions on the inability to break lower on a bearish USDA report on Tuesday.
April lean hogs retreated yesterday but fell short of falling apart. The volatility (up and down) creates an emotional and irrational trading environment, so consider reducing your “normal” position sizing.
March soybean futures caught a bid yesterday morning on the back of rumors that China was set to purchase 2-3 cargoes of new crop beans.