Buy the rumor and sell the fact. Many traders thought the run-up on crude oil was based only on the potential of an attack on Syria and fears that it would spin out of control. Yet, the run-up in oil has been about a lot more than just Syria; it's also about falling supply, rising demand and other geopolitical risk factors.
The United States led a coordinated effort, along with Britain and France, to strike specific targets in Syria on Friday night. This was the culmination of what began as a horrific chemical attack carried out by forces aligned with the Syrian government on a town held by Syrian rebels last weekend.
Markets rallied to key resistance levels and have to make an important decision this week. After two weeks of testing the bottom and coming to the middle of the range, will they fade here or go to the top of the range? It’s a mixed market with the Transports gapping up to start the week, but oil seems to have found a near-term high but violated the high it made earlier in the year.
Heading into the new trading week, investors across different asset classes feared that the U.S.-led strike on Syria would become the new catalyst to sell risk assets. However, Saturday’s operation, that also included the U.K. and France was a limited one, and intended to be a one-off as President Trump declared "mission accomplished."
The U.S.-led strikes against Syria turned out to be a non-event as far the markets are concerned and fortunately there were no reports of casualties. Only three targets were hit and the wave of strike action has already been declared to be over -– at least for the time being, anyway. However, investors still remain wary of the potential for tensions to escalate between Russia and the West.
U.S. equity markets gapped higher Sunday night with the “Mission Accomplished” rhetoric bringing a calming. The U.S.-led strikes on Syria were done in conjunction with Britain and France and while some hailed the execution as perfect, the market clearly agrees. The question that remains is whether Russia will retaliate.
Stock markets have got off to a relatively positive start on Monday, despite the United States, UK and France carrying out targeted strikes in Syria over the weekend in response to the chemical weapons attack a couple of weeks ago.
Crude oil prices have the potential to react strongly to supply disruptions because U.S. oil supply is below the five-year average. Crude prices surged to five-year highs after President Trump vowed to retaliate against Syria for a Chemical Weapons attack and taunted Russia about their threat to shoot down U.S. missiles if they were used against Syria.
The markets started Thursday’s session once again very quietly with the major currency pairs moving very little throughout Asian and the first half of the European session before another tweet from President Donald Trump caused volatility to spike. After stoking fears yesterday that an attack on Syria was imminent, today he appeared to backtrack slightly.