China's July exports fell 4.4% and imports declined 12.5%. The weak state may give the Fed pause before increasing rates because of the China debacle a year ago after the Fed raised rates in December. It could also force China to add more stimulus at the same time. Yet, what also is providing support is talk about OPEC having a special meeting and rumors that they will try to bring back the concept of an oil production freeze.
Crude oil prices had a second day snapback taking the crude market back out of bear territory and getting crowded out shorts to run for cover. Oil prices found support from the UK stimulus but also from a report from the private forecaster Genscape that showed supply in the Cushing, Okla., delivery point fell yet again.
Fundamentally, if any market needed regulation in production this one would be it. Whether it be Russia, Canada, the U.S. or Organizaton of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, crude oil producers around the globe continue to pump and pump and pump. They all want their market share of $40 per barrel crude oil.
OPEC delegates say comments from top exporter Saudi Arabia, which two years ago led the group to drop its historic role of supporting crude prices, are a change in tone and a sign the kingdom is looking - verbally for now - to prop up the market.
The Energy Information Administration, OPEC and the International Energy Agency all see the crude oil market getting in balance, but the timing and the point at which we flip to a global supply deficit is up for debate.
For years, this country bemoaned being dependent on Middle Eastern crude oil. We learned of the real risk to our national security after the Arab Oil Embargo and swore that someday we would free ourselves from the slave like binds of dependency on Middle Eastern oil. We vowed energy independence, even as many thought that was an unrealistic pipe dream.