Traders laughed off the International Energy Agency’s "no change in demand forecast" because it is clear to all non-biased readers that demand is going to grow in the next year. Their prediction of so-called "explosive” shale oil production growth is also being brought into question. For a major reporting agency using hyperbole like the word "explosive" seems like a desperate attempt to get attention and try to get attention to support the position of the consuming countries that they represent. We know that demand is strong and we are seeing it week after week.
Brent Crude crashed through $70 a barrel and WTI just shy of $65, shattering another glass ceiling many oil bears said was impossible to ever see. This came as OPEC said it has no intentions to relent on production cuts and overshadowed rising rig counts. Even as the market gets a little turn around Tuesday profit taking, the oil bears are having to throw in the towel.
We now have more evidence that the oil supercycle is underway, crude prices are on the rise as global demand and underinvestment in new oil projects are starting to take their toll on global oil supply.
Last Christmas, you said shale would jumpstart, but very soon after, it all fell apart, this year you say no more tears, you say that shale will be special. Last Christmas you said production would rise it did but fell far short of your prize. This year, you say have no fear, we will hit a new high threshold.
The forties is down till Christmas, in the old North Sea, it will slow that oil flows into Scotland’s refineries. Christmas will find price hikes, all the way downstream. The forties is down until Christmas and the oil price will scream.