Crude oil prices are getting a wake-up call after a lowering of the U.S. oil production outlook--a report of a major drop in U.S. oil supply and a warning by S&P to oil majors cut to back more and reduce debt levels or face downgrades.
Rising yields and rising oil production is causing oil to plunge even as U.S. oil stockpiles drawdown at a record rate. The rebound in U.S. oil production of 88,000 barrels a day according to the weekly Energy Information Administration and was the key data factor that is causing the selloff. The market says that the 100,000 barrel drop in U.S. oil production was just a storm-related fluke and that U.S. oil production will continue to rise even as many producers at this price level will struggle financially.
Crude oil prices are on the rise as Libya’s state-run National Oil Corp. declares a force majeure on loadings of Sharara crude from the Zawiya oil terminal and on loadings of Wafa field condensate from the Mellitah terminal and drop-in oil inventory at the Cushing, Okla., Nymex delivery point.
Crude oil is rising on peak oil concerns. OK, not the old failed ideology of “peak oil” but the fact that U.S. oil supply in the U.S. may have peaked as well as Exxon Mobil’s proven reserve. The American Petroleum Institute in its weekly report said we had the first crude oil drawdown of the year and the biggest draw in Cushing, Olka., since April of last year.
Inventories up, and inventories down. Crude oil prices are conflicted about rising U.S. oil inventories versus a dramatic drop in global oil inventories. While the EIA reported a 2.8 million barrel increase, a report by Bernstein Energy is showing that global oil inventories have fallen by 24 million barrels to 5.7 billion barrels in the fourth quarter of last year from the previous quarter.
Today the EIA released their latest Short Term Energy Outlook Report, which shows that U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2015, and it is forecast to average 8.9 million b/d in 2016 and 8.8 million b/d in 2017.
Despite all the talk about rising rig counts and the resilience of shale producers, the Energy Information Administration is predicting that U.S. production of both oil and natural gas is set to fall. In fact, for natural gas, this is a major event as this year will be the first time since the beginning of the shale revolution in 2005 that natural gas production would fall year-over-year.
Crude oil prices are roaring back as earth-shaking developments rock the markets: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries vows to follow through with a production cut, Hillary Clinton gets an all-clear from the Federal Bureau of Investigations and an earthquake in Cushing, Okla.--the major oil storage hub that is the delivery point for the West Texas Intermediate contract.
The enerygy complex is trading lower after the EIA released its latest weekly oil inventory report. The data showed Total Crude & Product stocks increased by 9.047/mmbls to 1340.731/mmbls for week ending Oct 28. Looking at the year-on-year for Total Crude & Product stocks we see we are now 70.2/mmbls above last year’s level for this time of the year and above the five-year average by 229.1/mmbls.