The U.S. dollar depreciated across the board versus major pairs despite consumer prices rising more than expected. Inflation anxiety had triggered a sell-off in global stock markets with the Fed expected to ramp up their interest rate hike path yet the dollar did not benefit as higher rates have already been priced in by the market.
Last week was one of those weeks where I was completely dialed in and laid out the roadmap very close to the way it worked out. If only I could do that every week. Of course, it helped to have the aid of the time windows. As you know markets peaked in the 610-day window to the August 2015 bottom, which is the Dow bottom.
It's been quite a tumultuous week in the markets, as we all know, but something seems amiss.....on Thursday when the Bank of England's Mark Carney talked about raising rates faster than expected, the pound popped (as one would expect) but it did not take even a few hours for it to completely reverse trend as if nothing happened, and the USD was back to being strong again. The speed of reversal was quite strange!
The U.S. dollar had its strongest week against major currency pairs in 12 months. Even as the United States is suffering a bout of political uncertainty, the dollar became a safe haven as stocks and bonds saw massive moves this week. The signing of a federal budget by U.S. President Donald Trump boosted the dollar ahead of the release of retail sales and inflation data next week. Central banks are moving away from record low interest rates around the globe.
The forthcoming trading week should be less exciting than this week, as the range math for many markets, many symbols of which may be opening near weekly lows, will likely facilitate sideways pricing more so than trending trades. That said, there may be some carryover trending character in the early part of the week before sideways pivot math and ranges that markets may need to digest set in place.
The markets plunged Monday, with the Dow falling nearly 1,600 points in the largest intraday point decline ever. This "February 2018 market crash" caused us to look back at some of the more recent historical market moves.
You can’t say I didn’t warn you. A week ago, markets, especially the Dow, hit 610 days from the August 2015 bottom. Most market participants are not aware of it unless they read me or a small handful of other market cycle experts. The challenge I’ve had is the bigger time windows from last September and October didn’t seem to fire off as usual. It was the first time in 19 years an important window didn’t seem to fire off.
The U.S. dollar rose against major pairs on Friday. The release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) proved to be the much needed shot in the arm after the greenback was under pressure for most of 2018. The job gains were above expectations but more importantly, the hourly wages came in higher, giving the Fed a potential green light to hike 3 or 4 times in 2018. The market is estimating a 77.5% probability of the first rate lift to come in March.
Markets got hit yesterday (Monday) and I haven’t seen that many experts try to explain it. How many realize last Thursday was 610 trading days from the August 2015 low? I saw that, Friday was another good market day and I said under my breathe, “here we go again.” But something happened between then and now. Monday was the first day I’ve seen in recent memory where my 1-minute YM charts had a hard time going up. It’s about time.