Last week we had one of the better jobs reports in recent memory with 313,000 new jobs in February in the United States. More important was the reaction as traders overlooked the potential for rates to rise. It was likely a given already as Powell warned they would do so. Nevertheless, the long bond maintained the low and the relief for longer-term rates has sustained since Feb. 21.
Some breakout setups with forthcoming trending weekly pivots are in place for the week in the euro, pound, crude oil, gold by pivot and range math, and the Aussie by daily narrowed range breaking higher. Going long the Aussie, crude and gold today (Friday) are weekly-expiration, daily candlestick trade ideas.
The Nasdaq 100 has been lurking within 2% of its all-time high since late February and Friday’s monster gain of 1.8% finally achieved the inevitable.February’s Consumer Price Index data is due out Tuesday at 7:30 a.m. Central. The Core read that excludes food and energy is the most closely watched data point. Industrial Production, Fixed Asset investment and Retail Sales are due out of China on TuesdayEvening.
The U.S. dollar ended up mixed against major pairs after the release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for February and news of a potential meet up between North Korea and American leaders. The NFP was a mixed bag with a monster 313,000 jobs gain but underperforming wage growth at 0.1%.
Anyone who has ever taken economics 101 has learned tariffs generally leads to a trade war, which can be a disaster for an economy. Donald Trump says it will work out for us. Like many others including the stock market, I have my doubts. The bottom line as far as trade deals and geopolitical situations are concerned, we didn’t get into this position overnight and this President has had to deal with huge trade deficits. I’m not sure this is the best approach.
The U.S. dollar was set to end the week on a positive note after Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified twice and other Fed speakers signaled a hawkish view on the economy. The U.S. dollar had appreciated on a weekly basis up until Thursday when President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and 10% on aluminum imports.
Some trending markets, such as gold, the euro and bitcoin may continue their behavior into next week. I’m bullish-sideways for next week on all symbols I track, except the yen, soybeans and bitcoin, due to understudies. The Yen, Beans, and Bitcoin chart bearish to me. The breakout candidates for this coming week are the Euro (monthly pivots are equal to last month, plus trending weekly pivots), gold (bullish), soybeans (bearish hammer) and bitcoin (bearish).
Markets had a 12% correction and that appears to be it. For now. The Dow is in the process of violating a perfect setup where it could’ve jumped off the ledge. Here’s a lesson I learned about 14 years ago. Unlike many who got their training in the old Internet bubble go-go days, I cut my teeth in the bear that followed.
It is new Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s first real opportunity to steer the ship in the semi-annual congressional testimony. He first addresses the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday at 9:00 am Central and then the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday at the same time. Speculation on the path of interest rates hikes have led to fickle market conditions.
After the signals from a week ago, Friday markets staged a strong rally week. Our methodologies were able to nail both the high and low. What is more difficult is going to be what comes next. Was it the end of the correction?