Mirroring the going stock market indecisiveness, the risk-sensitive euro/Japanese yen currency pair is currently stuck below a key technical area around 129.50. We are waiting to see if it will start to break down with some follow through now, or whether the buyers will come back and regain control. Furthermore, gold’s sizeable rally on Tuesday may also be indicative of investors growing increasingly risk-averse.
As expected, gold made nice three waves of correction back to projected 1250 support level, but there can be room for deeper and more complex correction down to around 61,8% Fib. retracement and 1245 level.
U.S. investors, out celebrating July 4 holidays, didn’t miss much at all yesterday in the markets. They are back today and with them, volatility is set to return. In fact, European stock markets have started sharply higher this morning although the forex markets have been fairly quiet so far as investors await key U.S. data releases later on in the afternoon, which should provide us vital clues about Friday’s key employment report. Depending on the outcome of today’s data, the dollar could start to move more meaningfully ahead of the jobs report on Friday.
After a losing ground into the close on Tuesday, major U.S benchmarks are all higher coming out of the July 4 Independence Day holiday. Investors and traders alike await a deluge of data and news over these next two days including Friday’s tariff deadline and jobs report. This morning brings an early look at jobs data with ADP Payrolls at 7:15 am Central.
Hail to the tweet! President Donald Trump is calling out OPEC and telling them now is the time to lower prices. The tweet this time had less of an oil price impact from previous tweets, as many are starting to realize OPEC can’t do much. The President tweeted that “The OPEC Monopoly must remember that gas prices are up & they are doing little to help. If anything, they are driving prices higher as the United States defends many of their members for very little $’s. This must be a two-way street. REDUCE PRICING NOW!”
After Monday’s price action, you'd be excused to think that today would have been a “risk-on” day. After all, the major stock averages ended Monday with relatively large green candles and there was some bullish follow-through at the European open. That’s why we thought gold’s earlier rally looked suspicious and that the metal could weaken again.
The slight gains in U.S. equities on Monday failed to influence Asian investors as trade fears and the Renminbi’s slide continued to drive risk aversion. This sharp depreciation in the Chinese currency is worrying investors. In August 2015, the U.S. dollar/Canadian dollar (USD/CNY) currency pair appreciated from 6.21 to 6.44, a two-day gain of 3.85%.
The U.S. dollar ended higher for the third consecutive month in June and made a positive start to the new month and quarter on Monday. However, today it has given up Monday’s gains and was, therefore, trading flat on the week at the time of writing.
Oh, say can you tweet, by the dawn’s early light? The global oil markets are still rolling after President Donald Trump tweeted that maybe the Saudis had agreed to increase output by as much as two million barrels to help replace Iranian supply that the Trump Administration wants to see at zero by early November.