The stock market is extremely strong, however, I say that the market is overbought (at least temporarily). You can see on the chart below that the E-Mini S&P 500 is outside the Keltner channels representing 3x the average true range on the daily chart. To me, this is very extreme, and sentiment may be too euphoric at this point.
Many traders have been caught by surprise by the extent of the dollar’s decline over the last week. The USD Index fell below 91 for the first time since January 2015, and Friday’s 0.96% drop, was the second biggest since January 2017. More surprisingly, the U.S. data released over the last week certainly doesn’t justify a dollar selloff.
The big news today is that the dollar’s losses have sharply accelerated but without any fresh news. The economic calendar is light and U.S. stock markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Day. This hasn’t stopped the Dow futures from melting up another 140 points.
Most markets I track for each coming week are in entering rangebound statistical conditions, with the exception of the Japanese yen, Australian dollar and corn futures. The yen, Aussie and corn have trending math elements that favor few turns and wide-reaching directional distances in price, with the Aussie making a monthly chart 50-simple moving average breakout, thus far. I’m bullish on all three. I was right that the Aussie’s subtle setup last week could make a surprise move, which it did, although the other symbol with the same conditions made a milder move.
Rumours surrounded this week going from shrinking Chinese appetite of U.S. bonds to speculation that the United States would pull out of NAFTA and while real economic indicators on Friday showed stronger U.S. inflation and retail sales it did little for the struggling US dollar. Economic growth outside of the US is accelerating and monetary policy is expected to tighten more abroad putting pressure on the greenback.