The goal in trading is to get ahead of the herd. It’s best to anticipate what’s going to happen in the next five to 60 days and focus on major events. Is the top analyst going to upgrade a stock before earnings? Will global macro traders try to position hawkish or dovish around the next FOMC statement? Will the next crop report show more supply or demand? These are the questions; the answers to which will move markets.
We are accustomed to splitting trading into technical and fundamental buckets. Both involve crunching data; one set includes market fundamentals and the other pure price data. Alternative data is a third bucket that is gaining traction.
Merriam-Webster defines data as, “Factual information (such as measurements or statistics) used as a basis for reasoning, discussion or calculation.” Traders use data in all forms to construct the basis for their trading decisions. In the past, this involved earnings reports and sales statistics for equity traders and perhaps weather reports and supply/demand calculations for commodity traders.
A year ago we asked 16 industry experts and MODERN TRADER analysts to provide their forecast for various market sectors in 2017. More than half had a positive outlook on the S&P 500, but only Dan Gramza predicted that the S&P would gain more than 15%. Alan Bush, Joe Cornell, Carl Larry and Tim Melvin all predicted the broad market would gain more than 10% in 2017.
Bitcoin began in 2017 with a value below $1,000, by early December it surpassed $17,500. Ronnie Moas put out a buy recommendation in July when bitcoin was priced at $2,570, he recently raised his 2018 projection from $20,000 to $28,000. Here’s why.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, while talked about frequently, has remained a sort of closed universe comprised of digital geeks. But its recent growth has attracted the attention of institutional players.