A week ago, heavily weighted tech stocks were taken to the woodshed. By far the most important market observation we could have is to see how they’ve recovered. If they don’t recover, there is little hope for the market to get a sustained leg up through the summer.
So here it is, Apple (AAPL) is hitting a new low gets an “F.” Friday, Amazon (AMZN) announced its intent to purchase Whole Foods. For boldness, they get an “A,” but even as the chart gapped up, they stalled 61 hours off the high and then again at 63 hours. You can see it has successfully navigated smaller time frames to this point (see the chart below). A 63 hour high doesn’t necessarily mean the surge is over so let’s see how well the downside can kick in here. Higher yes, but not sustaining well. Give them a “B+” at this point.
Google is hanging on, it could be better it could be worse. But it had a big retest of the low which held. Give it a B-. Facebook also had a stiff retracement to the low but is going better than Google but not as good as Amazon. I suppose there were no grocery stores available for Mark Zuckerberg. Give them a "B." Microsoft (MSFT) looks like a triangle off the high, give them a "B."
Overall, many names retested their lows last week before getting to the high end of the range. I compare it to prior surges off lows going back nearly a year to the Brexit bottom. This one "feels" like the weakest one of all. Thus far I’d give the big heavyweights a "B" only because the start on Monday was improved but to Friday wasn’t that great.
What is the Trump anti-trust division thinking? If you followed the headlines last week grocery stores got slaughtered. Kroger got hit before the Amazon news. Amazon is already a monopoly and the fact that the markets is cheering this purchase of Whole Foods is another sign of insanity that has infected our culture. The danger comes through the back door. Its common knowledge Amazon has a major contract with the CIA. For those of you who don’t know there is a $600 million cloud developed by Amazon Web Services that is starting to service all 17 agencies that make up the intelligence community. This was reported in The Atlantic nearly three years ago, so it is likely online already.
Bezos already runs the Washington Post. The Post is part of the destroy Trump media which is ultimately obstructing the pro-growth tax reform agenda that is already baked in the cake. Amazon is already so big the market already forgot the right hand is hurting growth while the left hand works at destroying it. Conservative political commentator Michael Savage says he received a leak that Jeff Bezos, founder, chairman, and chief executive officer of Amazon.com, had dinner at the White House Thursday night with Trump. Friday, the deal was announced. Why would Trump do such a thing? Relief from the constant hammering by the Amazon Post. By Monday morning, a bigger tech meeting at the White House was made public.
Capitalism works when there are checks and balances that allows competition. Right now, companies such as Google, Facebook and Amazon are so big they’ve destroyed competition in their respective industries. Ultimately will we end up with less competition in the grocery field? There are lots of unintended consequences to allowing centralized giants to run industry. In the short term, it looks great because Amazon stock gets propped up and it keeps the rally going. But in the bigger picture we look at brick and mortar retail to see names like M get slaughtered as it did last month. Yes, I know if Amazon got split up into 3 or 4 companies people would be still be shopping online and this is progress. But it wouldn’t be happening at lightning speed and I do believe the economy is slowing down not just because people are buying online. I think consumers are shutting their wallets partially due to the social unrest which is being fed by people like Jeff Bezos. It’s a vicious cycle with no end in sight.
Then we had the curious case of the Fed who boxed themselves into three rate hikes this year. You knew they were going to do it despite the lousy jobs number last time. On the one hand the economy is not creating nearly enough jobs to suggest its overheating. On the other hand, it was five days after Goldman Sachs issued a report suggesting heavyweight tech stocks were as safe as utility stocks or the bond market. Yeah, the same stocks which are monopolies. So, why doesn’t Trump bust up these monopolies?