February 2016

By Garrett Baldwin
New research has revealed an ugly secret about the forecasting game.
By Daniel P. Collins
We have been writing market forecasts at Futures and now Modern Trader magazine for decades. Anyone can provide a market outlook or opinion, so the test I always used was the logic behind someone’s forecast. It could be fundamental or it could be technical, but it had to make sense, there had to be logic behind it.
By Daniel P. Collins


OANDA has surveyed its elite traders to uncover what is most critical to their trading performance and provide tips for new traders as we move into 2016. The findings challenge misconceptions about the risk appetite of retail FX traders.

By Garrett Baldwin
This is a story about the future. About how each year, audience-hungry editors and TV pundits gather with sell-side analysts to speculate on what the world will look like a year from now.
By Garrett Baldwin
New research has revealed an ugly secret about the forecasting game.
By Jeff Joseph
It’s easy to be cynical about financial forecasting and question the motives and conflicts of market forecasters.
By Garrett Baldwin
Making prediction is about a range of probabilities.
By Garrett Baldwin
The aggregation of both experts and non-experts can offer investors strong estimates on complex questions regarding the market and relative equities or commodities.
By John F. Mauldin
The single most significant market trend of the last two years was U.S. dollar strength. The trend will persist and even accelerate in 2016. Intentionally or not, central bank policies will allow nothing else.
By Tim Melvin

It’s prediction season and pundits, gurus, sell-side strategists and technical analysts are making their 2016 calls. Predictions will be based on everything from 48-factor models to lines on a price chart. 

They will be confidently delivered, highly specific and, very likely, wrong.

By Garrett Baldwin
We queried an impressive list of market analysts and asked them to make a call on various markets and events.
By Timothy C. Summers

“When you’re in positions of privileged access, like a systems administrator for these sort of intelligence community agencies, you’re exposed to a lot more information on a broader scale than the average employee.”
– Edward Snowden 

By Andy Waldock
A look at long-term trends of commercial interest in the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report
By Brent Plunkett
Using the information from SEC-required 13F disclosures has proven to be an effective way to access world-class investors’ stock-picking prowess without the expense of investing directly in hedge funds.
By Ashraf Laidi
Picking a favorite FX trade for 2016 is tricky because of the length of time and increasing volatility in global markets.
By Steven Zhang
Predictive analytics from historical price patterns.
By Joe Cornell
On Oct. 1, 2015, The Madison Square Garden Co. completed its spin-off from the new media-centric MSG Networks (MSGN) and is trading under the ticker symbol MSG.
By John Rawlins
Cycle Projection Oscillator: Rocket science meets markets
By Christine Short
Cyber security, enterprise technology and SciFi picks
By Uri Gruenbaum
TipRanks tracks and measures financial experts based upon the success of their recommendations.
By Randall Liss
How can you commit less capital to a covered write? Use all options.
By Steve Reitmeister
Zacks ranks industries & stocks to own now.
By Donald L. Horwitz
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Nov. 24, 2015, unanimously approved a series of rules to “enhance the regulatory regime for algorithmic order origination and electronic trade execution on U.S.-designated contract markets (DCMs).”
By Bill Harts
In 1977, Coca-Cola abruptly withdrew from India where it had been operating for more than 20 years.
By Leslie Sutphen
Clearing members agree that a collaborative utility model may be the answer to the spiraling costs of clearing, processing and regulation.
By James Cordier
The United States has emerged as an oil superpower, and this is fundamentally changing the market. How can investors make money on crude oil now?
By Daniel P. Collins
Rob Hoffman was interested in trading from a very early age; he would read books on trading from the library as a teenager.
By Alex Krishtop
Backtesting a quantitative trading strategy is essential in measuring its potential, but as everyone knows, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
By Perry Kaufman
Congestion yield and the movement of money can reveal tendencies that can provide an edge.
By Tom Busby
The DAX is an important market in Europe, which makes it highly influential on U.S. markets.
By Howard L. Simons
Modern inventory management has found its way to the energy markets. Here’s how this business practice might effect traders.
By Kevin J. Davey
So-called gurus flourish in the trading world. Once hooked, many people stick with these “experts” through thick and thin. But should you follow their lure in the first place?
By Bill DeBuse
The best technical indicators often are the easiest to apply and the easiest to interpret. Here is one of those patterns.
By Bramesh Bhandari
Bollinger Bands automatically widen when volatility increases and narrow when volatility decreases. They have several uses in trading. Here’s an overview.
By Hillary Choo
Vodka was introduced in the United States around the turn of the 20th century, but America at that time was very much a whiskey country.
By J Burr Vannatta
Here’s a prediction—Adele will suffer from overplay on airwaves and TV and still sell more albums than Taylor Swift has in the last five years.
By Yesenia Duran
From the desk of Rob Hoffman
By Daniel P. Collins
The price of crude oil is on everyone’s mind and key to that was the early December annual meeting of OPEC.
By Alan Rohrbach
February was known as a quiet month for many years. Yet, since 2009 when it set the monthly low from the 2008 financial crisis, it has been far more active.
By Garrett Baldwin
Aaron Ross Sorkin succeeds with his latest Wall Street drama, “Billions,” starring Paul Giamatti and Damian Lewis.