April 2016

By Daniel P. Collins
Low energy prices can be a boon for economic growth but the recent dramatic drop in energy prices is being blamed in many circles for a global slowdown. Market expert Donald Luskin discusses the fallout from energy price volatility.
By Daniel P. Collins
The current bear market in crude oil has gone through many stages. In fact, one could compare it to a 12-step program; and many a trader and analyst have probably entered one as they have been driven to drink while trying to figure out where the oil market would go.
By Daniel P. Collins
No market has captivated traders more than crude oil since it began an historic downturn in the summer of 2014.
By Daniel P. Collins
Low energy prices can be a boon for economic growth but the recent dramatic drop in energy prices is being blamed in many circles for a global slowdown. Market expert Donald Luskin discusses the fallout from energy price volatility.
By Sean Levine
After nearly 18 months of extreme pressure, global oil supply is still solidly above demand, and according to Energy Capital Research Group, significant sector-wide downside remains. We asked the Baltimore-based energy analytics firm to weigh in.
By Neil Azous
On an intraday basis, the price of WTI crude oil and other assets, such as U.S. Treasuries and the S&P 500, has been seemingly attached at the hip.
By Hilary Till

Oil prices usually are influenced by a number of factors. But there arguably have been times when OPEC spare capacity has been the most important factor for driving oil prices. Here we identify the circumstances when this has likely been the case in the past.

By Ellen Wald
The possibility of Saudi Aramco offering public shares — either as a whole or some part of its massive holdings — is real.
By Andy Waldock
A look at long-term trends of commercial interest in the CFTC’s “Commitments of Traders” report
By Joseph Parnes
Energy stocks have taken a beating, and continue to provide sufficient short trading opportunities.
By Steven Zhang
Predictive analytics from historical price patterns.
By Ashraf Laidi
A recurring question by technical and fundamental analysts has been whether the market rout of 2015-2016 will be similar to the limited declines of 2011 or that of the 2008-2009 credit crisis.
By Joe Cornell
In early February, shares in Ferrari (RACE) plunged more than 10% to $34.98 after the Italian supercar maker issued conservative guidance for its first full year independent from Fiat Chrysler (FCAU), sending the shares to their lowest level since it’s Oct. 21 initial public offering.
By John Rawlins
Cycle Projection Oscillator: Rocket science meets markets
By Ellen R. Wald

The Chinese market is a top prize in the oil industry, and for months a buzz has spread that Russia is poised to overtake Saudi Arabia as China’s top supplier. This could both increase Russia’s economic power and decrease Saudi Arabia’s leverage in the global oil market. However, there are significant reasons to be skeptical that such a scenario is underway.

By James Cordier
Natural gas prices have been at more extreme lows than crude oil, and we are coming up on the vital injection season that may provide opportunities, given the right strategy.
By Michael Thomsett
Positioning of strike, expiration and proximity are crucial to the success of a covered call strategy.
By Daniel P. Collins
New exchanges and markets launch all of the time and most fail. Few people have had such success in creating not only new markets but completely new categories of markets as Richard Sandor.
By Garrett Baldwin
In January, Modern Trader released “The Issue with Forecasting.” The central thesis argued that the much-revered experts are not very good at predicting the future.
By Steve Reitmeister
The two main ingredients for airline profits are a growing economy and low fuel prices.
By Rocco Pellegrinelli
WTI Crude has been on a steep downward trend, dropping more than 75% in about 18 months.
By Michael J. Corbett
Nearly two years ago the U.S. returned as a petroleum powerhouse, a role not seen since the 1970s. The U.S. was pumping so much oil that it became less dependent on foreign supplies and was projected to be the leading world producer in a decade.
By Matt Litchfield
Another failed rally by energy stocks in late January followed almost immediately by the Super Bowl made us wonder, what do energy stocks and the Buffalo Bills have in common?
By Nathan Kay
Knowing what constitutes a normal or overpriced P/E depends on the market environment.
By Perry Kaufman

Wouldn’t we all like to know that today is the bottom of a sharp sell-off, so we can buy at just the right time? Some would say that’s trying to catch a falling knife, and certainly there is significant risk in a volatile market that’s been collapsing. But then risk is relative to reward, and if the reward is big enough, the risk can be worth it.

By Howard L. Simons
Throughout history, the dollar, which many view as the most basic financial measure within the U.S. economy, has hardly been precisely defined.
By Brian Twomey
The carry trade premise is to borrow a low interest rate currency and lend a high interest rate currency. However, over time, shifting crosspair allegiance may come into play.
By Art Collins
Conventional wisdom is that less risk means less reward. However, that isn’t necessarily the case when it comes to stops. Sometimes, more conservative stop levels can result in higher profits.
By James Smithson
W. D. Gann’s methods remain in use today, more than a century after their discovery. In this two-part article, we’ll explore their philosophical underpinnings, how they were discovered and how they evolved over time.
By Hillary Choo
With crude oil prices hitting rock bottom, a very different kind of oil is sizzling to an all-time high: Bacon.
By Madison Lisle
Walter Lanza, a 23-year-old agribusiness major at the graduate school of North Dakota State University, did not start college with the idea of becoming a commodities trader.
By Daniel P. Collins
What went wrong with oil?
By Daniel P. Collins

Joe Strutz is a long-term poker player and a natural trader who has used his poker skills to help deliver profits as head trader for commodity trading advisor Advanced Arbitrage Concepts. 

By Alan Rohrbach
April has been the best performing month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average since 1950 and a strong month for U.S. equities in general according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.