After being range-bound between 1550 and 1575, the S&P E-mini finally broke through, setting an all-time high of 1586.75. “This market completely ignores bad news,” says Larry Levin, president of Secrets of Traders. He says that the Federal Reserve rate cuts were a significant confidence builder and that for now, inflation does not seem like a big deal. “People like to hear that stuff and they are not afraid to buy the stock market,” he says, adding that people simply don’t want to miss out. “Every time this market comes down, people jump in, whether it’s fund managers or individual investors.” He expects the S&Ps to finish November strong, near the top of his 1560 to 1620 range.
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Since early September coffee prices have rallied from $1.15 per pound to nearly $1.40. “If they don’t get decent rain, it will be $1.50 or more, easy,” says John P. Casey, president of Anderson & Co. The other fundamental driving the market is currency conversion and the weakness in the Brazilian reale and the U.S. dollar, which has kept coffee cheap for European buyers, he says. From a technical standpoint, he says that while coffee is overbought, the market is strong. During November, he expects coffee to trade between $1.50 and $1.75, though healthy rains could push coffee to the $1.20 to $1.25 area. “That’s where the speculation is in the market,” he says.
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