Third quarter 2017 is not over, but nonetheless, the quarterly/macro-price action in the Canadian dollar is in the macro-process of establishing the required Wyckoff price action/steps “for a macro-bull market.”

All fixed income markets are “Long Term Bearish!!” Treasury prices are currently in a decline, within a large trading range. The current decline in prices, within the large trading range, is another necessary step, continuing a multiple step process, which is transitioning toward a long term bear market!

A continuation of the analysis of the Dollar Index (2001-2016).

Price action ended the July 2016 trading (i.e. the response to the May spring) with a clear indication that prices were headed toward an important long term “inflection point.” Additionally, because of the preceding poor price action within the new trading range following its development after the January 2015 high--and importantly, after the “retest” and “lower high” in December 2015--a bearish bias had been created.

As a Wyckoff trader, who trades markets using my interpretation of “technical analysis” to find trades with both short-term and long-term potential, I have always kept my eye on the U.S. Dollar Index. I do it to find trades, but importantly, I also do it to stay abreast of the always developing and, therefore, always changing but interesting “technical interpretation” of the global economic story.

Finding trades, opportunities to make money, is what technical analysis is all about. Therefore, it is often very beneficial to combine long- and short-term analysis to improve timing, and therefore gain better control of the “risk of ruin” when initializing trades. The 30-Year Treasury Bond monthly offers a good example of this technique.

The macro story for price action in soybeans appears to be developing bullish potential. The high in 2012 was an “upthrust position,” which ended the bull market that started in late 2008 and early 2009. The decline/bear market,” from the high in 2012 ended the downtrend in 2015 with a spring.

Beginning with the credit crisis of 2008, financial markets have been in a different world. The key to understanding market action is knowing the economic cycle.