In our regular gold trading alerts, we focus on the short- and medium-term outlook and we rarely discuss the very long-term issues or price targets. The reason is simple – the long-term issues and price targets don’t change often, so usually, there’s little new to say about them. Consequently, it’s been a long time since we last discussed our view on gold’s explosive upside potential. In fact, it’s been so long that those who do not take the time to read our analyses thoroughly and those who have been reading them for only a short while may think that we are bearish on gold in the long run. Or that we’re perma-bears.
The precious metals sector moved higher in the first days of this year, but based on yesterday’s decline and the current price levels, 2018 is already a down year for silver and mining stocks. Is the rally indeed over?
The last couple of years and—in particular—the last couple of months were very difficult for gold traders—i.e. they were boring. Despite several huge daily price swings, the precious metals market has not been going anywhere, moving in and around the $1,100 - $1,300 price range.
On Monday, official data showed that Chinese demand for crude oil declined in July, which together with a stronger greenback and concerns over a rise in OPEC output weighed on investors’ sentiment and pushed the price of the black gold lower. As a result, light crude lost 2.52% and closed the day below $48. How low could the commodity go in the coming days?
Yesterday’s session was not like the previous ones – in the previous days, the precious metals sector moved lower together and mining stocks were leading the way. Yesterday, gold and silver declined, but miners were barely affected. Does this strength indicate a likely turnaround?
If we look at gold from the long-term perspective, it’s clear that it hasn’t really done much in the recent months—it’s trading in the $1,200-$1,250 range, which is where it was in the first half of 2016, first half of 2015, for most of 2014 and in the second half of 2013.