While traders continue to stay focused on the “glut,” the futures markets are starting to signal a tighter market in the second half. The back end of the futures market is encouraging oil to be bought today and saved in storage for delivery down the road as the market must expect a dramatic tightening of supply. The speed to some of the back months is as high as $1.50 a barrel.
Shame on you! Have you been too quick to judge OPEC? OPEC has taken offense to the crude oil market’s biggest selloff in 9 months. The selloff that started when OPEC failed to map out a plan to cut production with non-OPEC producers caused doubt about OPEC's ability to get a deal done by the end of this month.
Crude oil prices ended their best surge in 4 years in spectacular fashion as oil chose to focus on what seemed to be bearish fundamentals. The bear case yesterday was an agreement with Iraq and the Kurds, who would soon get oil flowing and a potential ceasefire in Nigeria.
Crude oil might have seen some support from data out of China, easing concerns that Chinese oil demand was faltering. Reuters reported that China's June refinery output was up 3.2% from a year earlier at 45.08 million tons, or 10.97 million barrels per day (bpd)-- the highest on a daily basis ever, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Crude oil prices were under pressure after Mario Draghi magic seemed too eased off. Oh, sure, after Mario Draghi said he was disappointed with growth and the lack of inflation, oil got a bounce. Yet, when Asian and European stocks gave up the gains, oil prices falter until a headline came out about those Chinese Military ships that are moving off of the coast of Alaska.