With Europeans in lockdown and the U.S. seeing a successful vaccine rollout, there’s a tailwind to both the U.S. Dollar and Treasury rates. The latter adds strength to the former.
Constructive hold of support early in Thursday's session set the stage for a friendly Friday. This undeniably brought bullish technical tailwinds due to seller’s exhaustion, shorts covering, and fresh buying hitting the tape. Remember, this is a bull market.
Early signs of strength across each index dissipated as the session unfolded; the Nasdaq was first to go, slammed at the opening bell, then the Russell midday. The S&P followed, and the Dow was the last— although the Dow finished positive by 13 ticks, it was 1% from its session high.
Like Monday, rally attempts in the S&P and Nasdaq were deflected by strong levels of technical resistance. From there, each bled slowly leading up to the final hour.
Late last night, a U.S. health agency questioned the validity of AstraZeneca’s vaccine trials, saying the results included outdated data. To make matters worse, Germany followed through and announced a strict 5-day lockdown over Easter.
The vaccine was suspended throughout the EU after concerns it caused blood clots. Trials across the U.S., Chile, and Peru showed the vaccine 79% effective with no link to blood clots. This comes after the European Medicines Agency confirmed similar findings last Thursday.
The Treasury complex responded to the Fed’s emphasis on underemployment and how their expectations of only a meager increase in Core PCE to 2.0-2.2% through 2023 will keep policy accommodative.
It’s Fed Day: the committee’s policy decision, economic outlook, and interest rate projections are due at 1:00 p.m. CT. Yields of longer duration Treasuries are climbing as many analysts say a dovish Fed is simply not enough anymore.
Is emphasis on “remaining accommodative” merely enough now? Markets want to hear something on the steeping yield curve. They've become accustomed to continued assistance and yield curve control is now what they’re asking for.
U.S. benchmarks were little changed ahead of Monday’s opening bell. The easing of state and local restrictions coupled with Congress passing President Biden’s fiscal package has brought a continued tailwind to many sectors.
