Fed Chair Powell has continued to emphasize his rhetoric that an acceleration in inflation through the summer is only expected to be transitory due to expected base data. Still, we didn't want to see the data run away and bring cause for policy to be reactionary.

Chair Powell's interview gives credence to the Fed’s patience with its unprecedented policy measures and rhetoric of symmetrical inflation targeting. Coincidentally, the story comes ahead of tomorrow’s pivotal CPI read and a deluge of Treasuries hitting the market.

U.S. benchmarks finished Q1 and started Q2 with fireworks before Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report brought added tailwinds. We now view the next 2-3 sessions as critical in solidifying investors’ appetite for the next 3-week narrative and defining a very bullish technical breakout. 

U.S. benchmarks were pointing higher this morning ahead of both the bell and a long weekend. Tomorrow brings Nonfarm Payroll, but the NYSE is closed and index futures only trade through 8:15 a.m. CT due to the Good Friday holiday.

With a melting pot of narratives, this quarter brought a lot of chop, but at the end of the day, the trend is higher, the fundamentals are supportive, and there’s no reason to believe either will dissipate, at least not through April.

With Europeans in lockdown and the U.S. seeing a successful vaccine rollout, there’s a tailwind to both the U.S. Dollar and Treasury rates. The latter adds strength to the former.

Constructive hold of support early in Thursday's session set the stage for a friendly Friday. This undeniably brought bullish technical tailwinds due to seller’s exhaustion, shorts covering, and fresh buying hitting the tape. Remember, this is a bull market.

Early signs of strength across each index dissipated as the session unfolded; the Nasdaq was first to go, slammed at the opening bell, then the Russell midday. The S&P followed, and the Dow was the last— although the Dow finished positive by 13 ticks, it was 1% from its session high. 

Like Monday, rally attempts in the S&P and Nasdaq were deflected by strong levels of technical resistance. From there, each bled slowly leading up to the final hour.

Late last night, a U.S. health agency questioned the validity of AstraZeneca’s vaccine trials, saying the results included outdated data. To make matters worse, Germany followed through and announced a strict 5-day lockdown over Easter.