SUMMARY OF DATA 07/07/09
1:00 pm EST US 3 YEAR NOTE AUCTION ($35 BILLION)
07/06/09 SUMMARY OF DATA
ISM NON MANUFACTURING INDEX (47.0 VS. 46.7), US 10 YEAR NOTE AUCTION ($8B, BID TO COVER 2.51, YIELD 1.920%.
SHORT END OF YIELD CURVE POSTS SLIGHT GAINS IN SUBDUDED MARKET. HOLIDAY DOLDRUMS SET IN AHEAD OF AUCTIONS AND EARNINGS.
U.S. Treasuries returned from the 4th of July holiday with little fanfare, as the summer doldrums continue to weigh on trading volumes and commitment of direction. Once again the short end of the yield curve seemed to be the best place to commit funds as reports showing better than expected readings within the US non manufacturing survey and a well received auction of TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protection Securities) offered elements for the negative side of the fixed income equation. In contrast, the growing uncertainty across a variety of fiscal and economic categories-lagging unemployment, doubts pertaining to the ability of global recovery to remain on track, and the downgrading of California’s debt and budget management stack up in favor of investing in secure Treasury debt.
Looks as if the stalemate may continue as continued record auctions are met with initial negative anticipation of 2nd quarter corporate earnings which are set to kick off this week.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK-US 30-YEAR- US 30-year bonds appear to be stalling out at top end of range set back in late May. However some more upside appears possible. Look for upward near term target of 119-13, with 119-19 a key resistance point. Failure at this level should allow for a retest of 118-01.
US 10-YEAR-Less volatility in the contract means less potential upside before correction. Look for possible stall of upward momentum at 117-03 before pullback to 116-04.5.
EURODOLLARS- December Eurodollars upward momentum continues to appear to be setting up as a scale trade. One last pop to 9926.0 should be the end before an overdue correction stages a pullback initially to 9916.0.
US DEBT FUTURES
OPEN
HIGH
LOW
CLOSE
CHANGE
US U9 (US 30 YRS)
118-290
119-080
118-085
118-265
-3.5/32nds
TY U9 (US 10 YRS)
116-280
117-020
116-200
116-270
0
ED Z9 (EURO $)
99.210
99.240
99.195
99.205
+2.00
Prepared by Rich Roscelli & Paul Brittain.
EMAIL QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS TO RICH@BINVSTGRP.COM
Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities. Whitehall Investment Management, its officers and directors may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.