E-mini S&P 500 (September): Settled at 4474, up 11.50
E-mini Nasdaq-100 (September): Settled at 15,134, up 8.25
By the end of a wild session Monday, the S&P and Dow had achieved and settled at fresh record highs for the 5th straight session. Price action softened through Sunday night on the heels of Friday’s Michigan Consumer Sentiment whiff, Sunday’s weak China data, and Monday’s miss on NY Empire State Manufacturing.
Within an hour of the opening bell, the selling had been digested, allowing the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq to turn sharply higher. Despite a powerful finish, there was little follow through overnight and all 4 major U.S. benchmarks are lower at the onset of U.S. hours with the Russell 2000 leading.
Retail Sales, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and earnings from the largest retailers highlight today.
Retail Sales for July missed expectations, but MoM had tougher base comparisons given strong revisions for June. Also, July’s YoY read was +15.8%. This is massive growth given that last July’s YoY was +2.7% mid-pandemic. Similarly, June was +18.7% YoY 2021 and +1.1% YoY 2020. The consumer is strong, and the market’s initial reaction is positive despite the headline miss; stocks, U.S. Dollar, and yields all ticked up.
From there, all eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s town hall at 12:30 p.m. CT. Will he lay groundwork for a policy shift by September, or an announcement as early as Jackson Hole next week? We’ve seen committee members turn a bit more hawkish on the heels of July’s strong job growth, however, Powell has been quiet since the July Fed meeting and fresh comments will be watched extremely closely.
Both Walmart and Home Depot beat top and bottom line expectations, but their reactions were mixed. Home Depot is down more than 3% after missing same-store sales estimates. Additionally, the company still hasn’t provided full year guidance. Walmart is unchanged ahead of the bell, but the company posted strong earnings across the board and bellwether growth from its grocery business.
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