Looking at a December cocoa contract, traders see the gap formed earlier this week – will that be filled? As we approach the weekend, Ivory Coast’s presidential election is set to take place. Many people are anticipating political unrest and potential boycotts. As this occurs and supply issues arise from port closure or disruptions, prices continue to move lower. 

The eurocurrency remains weak as lockdowns take effect in certain regions. Relief doesn’t appear close to an already demand dependent cocoa market. As new measures are put into place in Europe, demand continues to weaken as we head into a critical time of year for the cocoa market. Typically, corporations’ data show a boost in demand over the next few months, not during a pandemic, though.

The U.S. Presidential election has the global markets on edge. Waiting for the results next week will be sure to add movement in commodities. Fundamentals will vary from day to day over the next week. Still, technical levels may hold; look at option strategies to gain limited exposure to the market during an uncertain time.

December Daily Chart

Source: Tradingview

If you are interested in discussing the soft commodities, contact pmooses@rjofutures.com.