Just 48 Hours to a Fiscal Stimulus Agreement?

October 19, 2020 09:03 AM
Covid-19 aid talks in Washington have taken a positive turn
Mixed Chinese economic data
Keep an eye on Brexit and OPEC+ technical meeting
Stock Market Update for Traders

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Last Week's Close

E-mini S&P 500 Futures (December):  Settled at 3462.25, down 13.25 on Friday and 11.00 on the week

E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (December): Settled at 11,798, down 76.00 on Friday and up 73.25 on the week

U.S. benchmarks are regaining their late Friday losses on renewed stimulus hopes and strong technical groundwork.

The on again, off again Covid-19 aid talks in Washington have taken a positive turn. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she is “optimistic” that a deal can be reached ahead of the election. White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows added this morning that he spoke with the President on Sunday for an hour, and welcomes Pelosi’s tone. Meadows  is hopeful that an agreement can be reached in the next 48 hours. Fiscal stimulus ahead of the election is certainly a bonus and will bring a welcome tailwind to the market. However, one that falls short of expectations could bring added volatility unless it's bubble-wrapped with the promise of more soon. 

Economic data out of China last night was mixed. Although Industrial Production firmly topped expectations at 6.9% versus 5.8% YoY, Q3 GDP missed at 4.9% versus 5.2% YoY and 2.7% versus 3.2% QoQ. 

Central bankers crowd today’s schedule with Fed Chair Jerome Powell headlining an IMF event and speaking this morning. ECB President Lagarde spoke at 7:45 a.m. CT. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida is on deck speaking at 10:45 a.m. CT. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker speak later at 1:20 p.m. CT and 2:00 pm CT; Bostic is a 2021 voter and Harker a 2020 voter. 

Traders also want to keep an eye on a positive turn amid Brexit talks and an OPEC+ technical meeting; both have the power to sway risk-sentiment.

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About the Author

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