Chinese Demand Is Driving The Rally

September 2, 2020 10:39 AM
Grain futures market update

[node:field_image:alt]

Corn

After a strong rally last week based off of demand from China and concerns over Iowa’s crop conditions, this week has started out mixed/bearish even after seeing Monday’s crop conditions get lowered. This is a pretty strong signal that trader’s think the market was over-priced, even with declining G/E ratings. There is a gap below that I expect to be filled eventually, although it may take another week or some type of bearish catalyst (like rain) to send it lower. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dec. Corn futures consolidate around this level where the gap is.

Corn futures prices

Source: RJO Futures Pro

Soybeans 

Like corn, bean futures are a bit mixed/bearish after a very strong week last week. Mostly for the same reasons, we saw a rally in beans because of China demand as well as minimal rain fall in some areas that were in need of rain.  Parts of Iowa and a good portion of Illinois received rain last night, but is it too little too late?  All 3 big moving averages are well below the current market price, as well as the market being overbought, so this leads me to think we should see soybeans begin to grind lower unless *new* bullish news comes out. If nothing new, I expect to see $9.20-$9.30 in Nov. Soybean futures again.

Soybean futures prices

Source: RJO Futures Pro

If you are interested in discussing the potential opportunities in grains, contact Tony directly at tcholly@rjofutures.com.

About the Author

Tony Cholly is a senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Tony's primary focus is on technical analysis in the grain, metals, and energy markets.