Crude oil trading has really tightened up over the last month, so much so that I have to show you the 2-hour chart in order to really see the action, but the upward momentum continues, with last week's high at $43.50 being re-targeted again with this week's Tuesday and Wednesdays inventory data.
The next cycle turn date is August 20, and, for now, one would anticipate it's possibly a high. Also seasonally gasoline usage peaks around mid-August. With it being a Covid-19 year, it's hard to know what a seasonal would be this year, as gas usage could actually be increasing as we go into the fall if no lock-downs are being pushed.
We have been targeting $44.50-45.00 as a potential price target for a high, with $50.00 being challenged likely at the beginning of 2021. Oil prices will get support from a declining U.S. dollar, which will likely pick up downward momentum after the November elections.