E-mini S&P 500 (September): Settled at 3288.50, up 25.00
E-mini Nasdaq-100 (September): Settled at 11,044.25, up 153.75
The Monday rally was real, carrying momentum from Friday’s late surge. The Nasdaq-100 hit a fresh record high intraday yesterday and notched it again overnight on today’s session. Microsoft, Apple, Salesforce, and semiconductor stocks led the way, whereas the broader market outside of healthcare struggled. Some of that enthusiasm is dissipating, which has become typical on Tuesdays, but the S&P 500 index is still above Friday’s high and the Nasdaq is within 1% of its record.
U.S. and China tensions continue to boil over TikTok. China has snapped back after President Trump exclaimed a sale could only go through if the U.S. gets a cut of the deal. Although China is calling this “open robbery,” how is it any different than much of Chinese policy over the last 20-30 years? While TikTok grabs the headlines, friction has increased in recent weeks, after the Houston consulate and the removal of Chinese journalists. We maintain our narrative; the market doesn’t believe President Trump will escalate tensions ahead of the election and this poses downside risk.
Washington remains in deadlock. the White House is trying to find common ground with House Democrats who also have a large divide between Senate Republicans. The previous fiscal measures exhausted last week, and lawmakers rush to find a solution to keep the pandemic unemployment benefits flowing. President Trump has signaled he’s looking into executive action to keep the economy afloat amid disagreement.
On the economic calendar, we look to ISM NY Business Conditions at 8:45 a.m. CT and Factory Orders at 9:00 a.m. CT. Chinese Services data is due this evening and tomorrow we look to the private ADP payroll survey and ISM Nonmanufacturing.
Interested in our technical perspective? Please sign up to have Blue Line Futures technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels emailed to you each day.