Last Week's Close
E-mini S&P 500 Futures (September): Settled at 3204, down 23.50 on Friday and down 10 on the week
E-mini Nasdaq-100 Futures (September): Settled at 10,459, down 89.25 on Friday and down 163.50 on the week
Risk-assets are broadly pointing higher to start the week, gathering tailwinds from stimulus talk and a weaker U.S. dollar. Republicans in Washington are expected to announce their $1 trillion pandemic relief bill later today. Although this gets the ball rolling on negotiations, the bill still must gain enough Republican support to pass the Senate. This is even before bridging the great divide between their plan and the Democrat’s $3.5 trillion plan in the House. Markets are keying off the hope of a new round of $1,200 direct stimulus checks and what are arguably positive steps overall, but a long road ahead is certainly set.
In the week ahead, we look to the FOMC policy meeting Wednesday, Q2 GDP Thursday and a deluge of earnings. The U.S. dollar is getting whacked again today on the mounting monetary and fiscal policy measures devaluing the currency, but there is certainly a reason to believe the downside is becoming exhausted. We could be seeing a buy the rumor, sell the news event heading into the Fed meeting and historic GDP expectations of -34% QoQ. The demise of the U.S. dollar has given rise to stocks and commodities with gold setting a new record high overnight. Big tech is in the spotlight this week with Facebook reporting Wednesday and Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet all reporting Thursday.
Also supporting risk-assets is a flattening curve in the U.S., the rise of Covid-19 cases in the hardest hit states is now slowing. However, fresh outbreaks in Germany, Spain, India, and China are reinvigorating concerns abroad.
Durable Goods data this morning was mixed across the board with the core read coming in just below expectations at +3.3% versus +3.5%. However, last months was revised lower across. At noon, the Treasury will auction 2-year and 5-year Notes.