CRYPTO MOVERS AND PRICES
Crypto is unchanged to marginally lower this morning. Spot volumes are an abysmal 30% of the 30-day average.
CRYPTO STORY OF THE DAY
The percentage of bitcoin (BTC) unmoved for over a year has reached near all-time highs at 60.75% of the current supply. The previous high occurred In January 2016.
The percentage of BTC unmoved for a particular timeframe is sometimes referred to as HODL waves. Unchained Capital, a crypto-financial company, first introduced the concept of HODL waves in 2018. As you can see in this HOLDL waves graph, the dotted blue line charts BTC that has been unmoved for a year versus price. We've returned to the levels from the 2014-2016 quiet crypto market
Given the Bitcoin network’s design, the history of all transactions are accessible, allowing researchers to determine a coin’s age, i.e. when it was last used in a transaction. On a basic level, the metric is interpreted as such: the higher the percentage of unmoved coins on the network and the longer the time period during which these coins haven’t been moved, the more likely these coins are held by "strong hands" or those invested in the asset’s long-term potential.
We’re not surprised that the metric is near all-time-highs. Everything that has defined the ardent BTC investor’s world-view has come to fruition in the last several months in light of the Covid-19 crisis: highly interventive monetary policy, perceived governmental overreaches, etc. Arguably, BTC proponents have predicted such crises and their reluctance to either sell or move their coins makes sense, despite the magnitude of March’s sell-off. In this context, the metric arguably captures the solidarity of BTC’s incumbents. Of course, incremental buyers are also required for price appreciation. The metric, however, does further underscore the thesis that leverage and speculative positions were heavily washed out in the March sell-off.