Late Selling Pressure on the Heels of the Gilead Announcement

April 17, 2020 08:20 AM
Selling pressure in the final minutes of the market
Livestock futures pre-market bids/offers showing a higher open
Meats Market Update

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Livestock Roundup

Livestock markets were all over the place yesterday as rumors of additional plant disruptions circulated, ultimately leading to selling pressure in the final minutes of the session. After the close there was a news release suggesting that Gilead Sciences has a treatment drug that patients are responding very well to. That hope, coupled with optimistic discussions on re-opening the economy has the pre-market bids/offers showing a higher open, limit up for some live cattle contracts. It is still very early in the morning, so take it with a grain of salt. If we do see a firm to limit up morning session, we would consider selling into it over the weekend. The weekend news-wire has not been friendly for several weeks, making Mondays the weakest days of the week, we wouldn’t be surprised to see that trend continue. 

Cash trade has yet to pick up and it may not pick up much in terms of volume. For what does trade, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a drop into the mid 90s. This may come as a headline shock, but keep in mind the April futures are right there, indicating that the market has been pricing in these disruptions well.

Concerns over the future of lean hog futures continues to loom as many market participants are anticipating things to get worse before they get better. We would not be surprised to see more negative news over the weekend. How much of this is already priced in? TBD, but we wouldn’t recommend trying to be a hero here by attempting to buy the bottom. The only thing you get from picking bottoms is stinky fingers.

 

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