Corn Relief Rally Falls Short While Soybean Futures Continue to Bleed

Corn futures technical support and resistance levels remain intact
Wheat and soybean export sales come in low
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn (May)

Fundamentals: Corn tried to stage a relief rally yesterday, but the attempt fell short, with no conviction from the buy-side. Weekly export sales yesterday morning came in at 906,600 metric tons, 51% below last week and 36% below the 4-week average. Weather will become increasingly important as we see planting pick up, that data will be updated each Monday afternoon in the USDA’s weekly crop progress report. Last year’s weather sets a new precedent for what modern technology is capable of, which means wet weather concerns will likely be less concerning. 

Technicals: With the market little changed yesterday, many of the technical support and resistance levels remain intact. 313 ¾-315 ¼ is long term support, this is based off the continuous chart, going back to the August 2016 lows. May option expiration is next Friday, in a normal environment we’d use open interest to try and figure out where the magnet is for prices. Right now, that suggests somewhere between 330-335. Keep in mind this isn’t a normal environment.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 343 ¼-344 ¾**, 354-356 ¾***

Pivot: 330-332

Support: 313 ¾-315 ¼***


Soybeans (May)

Fundamentals: May soybean futures continued to bleed lower yesterday on the back of poor export sales. Weekly export sales yesterday morning came in at 244,700 metric tons, a marketing year low, down 53% from last week and 68% from the 4-week average.

Technicals: Lower lows and lower highs have been the theme since failing at significant resistance at the end of March, keeping the bear camp in full control. Previous support now becomes resistance, we have that as 842-845 ¼. If the bulls cannot reclaim ground above here, we could see a retest of the contract lows in the very near future, 821. Though we do have a bearish tilt on beans, we do think there is some potential for soymeal.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 854-858 ¾****, 871 ¼-875**

Pivot: 842-845 ¼***

Support: 820-821**


Wheat (May)

Fundamentals: Weekly export sales yesterday morning came in at 178,300 metric tons, down 31% from the previous week and 49% below the 4-week average.

Technicals: Yesterday, the market tested and held our 4-star support pocket and downside target, 525-528 ¼. This pocket represents the 200-day moving average, the 50% retracement, and the breakout point from March 19. We would not be surprised to see the market begin to consolidate here. This pocket will be the new inflection point, a close below will accelerate the selling. If the bulls can defend this pocket, they'll have hope for a relief rally and consolidation.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 540 ½-542 ½***, 564-568 ½****

Pivot: 525-258 ¼

Support: 506 ¼-512 ¼***, 491 ¾***

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