Rumors, Reality and the Livestock Market

April 6, 2020 10:20 AM
Growing concerns about meat plant reduced capacity and shutdowns
Has the Livestock future market reached it low?
Meats Market Update

Meats Market Update

Livestock Roundup

Technicals remain useless in this environment.

Last week we saw things go from bad to worse and the early expectation is for more of the same to start the week. For the last two months(ish) we have been talking about the futures market signaling concern over reduced capacity or outright shutdowns. We have officially moved into that territory, with several reports of workers calling in sick or walking off the floor. We have heard rumors that retailers were turning away meat from plants that had cases of Covid-19. These rumors escalate over the weekend, which we are expecting will lead to another very rough start the week.

If you’re looking for silver linings ---aren’t we all at this point? -- it could be that with plants reducing capacity we are nearing the “buy the rumor, sell the news” phase of this vicious cycle. This is a futures market and the market was trying to price this in for the last month. Futures could also very well start to turn before the worst news is over. Does that mean we are at the low? Nobody knows. But there will be better days ahead, that we can say for sure

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