Grain Traders - Fundamentals Don't Mean Sh**t When Markets Panic

Outside markets will continue to have a bearing on the grain sector
Fundamentals secondary in panic markets
Chicago wheat futures have continued to drift lower
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Outside Markets Main Driver of Grain Prices

Outside Markets: Outside markets were extremely volatile Sunday night, through Monday’s session, creating an immense amount of panic selling which led to a broader risk-off trade in commodities, including precious metals. The outside markets have calmed in the overnight session, at one-point trading limit up, currently back near unchanged. Outside markets will continue to have a bearing on the grain sector, if we can avoid the limit down days and peak panic environment like we saw yesterday, we think the market can focus back on its own fundamentals.

Corn Futures (May)

Techncials: The market tripped stops below yesterday’s lows, last night. The Bears remain in full control but if the outside markets stabilize, we could see some relief come into the market, but don’t you’re your breath for much more than relief. Previous support now becomes resistance, which comes in from 363 ½-365 ¾. Consecutive closes above this pocket would start to neutralize the technical landscape. The RSI (relative strength index) is at 30.68. The most oversold since finding relief at the end of February, the previous lows.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 373 ¼-375**, 387-390****, 398 ¾-400***

Soybeans (May)

Soybeans have been beaten down over the last two weeks, with the selling accelerating over the last three sessions. We are in uncharted territory, so finding meaningful technical support is a fool’s errand. The RSI is at 20.96, the last two times we were near this level we saw decent relief rallies, this was the beginning of December and the beginning of February. If the outside markets can avoid limit down/panic selling days, we could see other markets stabilize, even if it’s a down day. We just need to avoid the peak panic limit down days to help the other markets work and trade-off of their own fundamentals.

Bias: Neutral

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Chicago Wheat (May)

Chicago wheat futures have continued to drift lower, making new lows for the move in yesterday’s session. The market is the most oversold since we bottomed out last September, so we could see some relief here near the psychologically significant $5.00 handle. Don’t confuse relief with a bottom.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 523-528 ½***, 540 ½-542 ½****

Pivot: 510 ¾-512 ¼

Support: 488 ¼-494****
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