USDA Report 'Top of Mind' For Grain Traders

Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Breaking: The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Export Sales Report for the week ending Jan. 2 will be published at 8:30 a.m. EST on Friday, Jan. 10, instead of Thursday, Jan. 9, due to the weather-related closure of Washington, D.C.-area federal offices on afternoon of Jan. 7.

Corn Futures (March)

Fundamentals: If it hasn’t yet, attention now turns to tomorrow’s USDA report, out at 11am CT. Estimates are below.

Range of Estimates for Yield: 164.8-168.5

Average Yield Estimate: 166.2

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Range of Estimates for Harvested Acres: 80.10-81.952

Average Harvested Acre Estimate: 81.350

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Range of Estimates for Production: 13.217-13.701

Average Estimate for Production: 13.513

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Range of Estimates for Quarterly Stocks: 11.29-11.66

Average Quarterly Stocks Estimate: 11.511

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Technicals: We are still optimistic on corn prices but the price action since Friday has done damage to the chart. 377-381 is a MUST hold pocket for the bulls, a failure to do so would put the bears in control and likely take us to retest the contract lows from September. The market is working higher this morning, but the bulls need to see a close back above 385 to encourage moderate short-covering ahead of Friday’s report.

 

Soybeans (March)

Fundamentals: Focus is on tomorrow’s USDA report, out at 11am CT. Estimates are below.

Range of Estimates for Yield: 46.0-47.2

Average Yield Estimate: 46.6

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Range of Estimates for Harvested Acres: 74.5-76.0

Average Harvested Acre Estimate: 75.462

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Range of Estimates for Production: 3.463-3.560

Average Estimate for Production: 3.512

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Range of Estimates for Quarterly Stocks: 3.023-3.379

Average Quarterly Stocks Estimate: 3.186

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Technicals: The market has tested our support pocket and held it for the last four sessions. That pocket comes in from 933 ¾-937 ¼. If we see this pocket give way, we could see the market drift into the low 920’s, we will see this as buying opportunity. On the resistance side of things, the bulls want to reclaim 950 ½-955 to resume the uptrend and potentially take us to the October highs, 968 ½-970.

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 968 ½-970****

Pivot: 950 ½-955

Support: 933 ¾-937 ¼***, 920-922 ¾****

 

Chicago Wheat (March)

Fundamentals: Tomorrow’s USDA report will be out at 11am CT. Estimates are as follows: US Ending Stocks, 969 million bushels. US Quarterly stocks: 1.917 billion bushels.

Technicals: The market has stabilized after taking some heat at the end of last week and beginning of this week. The chart remains constructive, posting higher lows and higher highs for the past several months. With that said, we don’t see a lot of value at these prices. Significant resistance comes in from 572 ¼-573 ½. This pocket represents the double top highs from June.

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