Oil Analysts And Traders Turning More Optimistic For 2020

December 19, 2019 08:40 AM
EIA on Wednesday reported that U.S. crude supplies fell by 1.1 million barrels
Today we get the EIA’s take on natural gas
Oil analysts and traders are turning more optimistic for 2020
The Energy Report



The Phil Flynn Energy Report 

Merry Xmas Trade War Over


And so this is Christmas, and what have they done? Election do-over and an Impeachment vote spun. And so this is Christmas. The Dems think they won, yet voters are angry because they get nothing done. A very Merry Christmas, with record stocks here, with low unemployment, for Trump a great year. It means a great Christmas for weak and for strong, for rich and the poor ones. The Dems got it wrong. Great jobs for Christmas for black and for white for the yellow and red one.  Let's stop all the fight. A very Merry Christmas and a trade deal next year. Let's hope it's a good one and China adheres. Trade War Over if you want it, trade war over now.

Oil and stocks seem immune to one of the saddest days in our country. House Democrats decided to show disdain for our constitution and American voters and used impeachment as another political stunt. This is the party that has defended the FBI against their abuses of power and misuse of the FISA court to violating the rights of an innocent America. The party that has used Un-American tactics trying to declare people guilty without proof and are turning our country into a state where individuals have no right to due process. While Trump-haters may be happy today because they came after Trump this time, it will be just a matter of time before a government, drunk with power, will come after you next time.   

Being an oil bull this holiday is not as lonely as some years. Oil analysts and traders are turning more optimistic for 2020. Most now say what we have been writing about for most of the year. Issues like the global economic stimulus, a strong U.S. economy, cracks in the U.S. oil shale business and the natural gas boom. Still, traders are a little concerned that U.S. oil inventories are not falling faster than they are. They are also concerned that gasoline supply keeps rising even after U.S. demand seemed to bounce back. Yet it may be news that China is lifting tariffs on US petro products that get us moving. Reuters is reporting that China on Thursday unveiled a new list of import tariff exemptions for six chemical and oil products from the United States, days after the world’s two largest economies announced a phase one trade deal. The exemptions will be for one year from Dec. 26, the Finance Ministry said, without providing a value for the imports excluded from duties. Duties already imposed on U.S. products would not be refunded, the ministry added. The tariff waivers will apply to four chemical products, such as metallocene high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and a special grade of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE), and refined oil products that include white oil and food-grade petroleum wax.  

The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported that U.S. crude supplies fell by 1.1 million barrels for the week ended Dec. 13. Quite a difference from the 4.7-million-barrel increase reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API). I think they are reporting the same thing. The EIA data showed supply increases of 2.5 million barrels for gasoline and 1.5 million barrels for distillates. The S&P Global Platts survey had shown expectations for supply climbs of 2.4 million barrels for gasoline and 600,000 barrels for distillates.  

Today we get the EIA’s take on natural gas. The street is looking for an 89 bcf draw. A warmup in the Midwest is offsetting a cold snap in the Northeast. Record production versus Oldman Winter! Production right now has an edge. 

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About the Author

Phil Flynn is a senior energy analyst at The PRICE Futures Group and a Fox Business Network contributor. Phil is one of the world's leading market analysts, providing individual investors, professional traders, and institutions with up-to-the-minute investment and risk management insight into global petroleum, gasoline, and energy markets.