Soybean harvest nearing 90% complete, headlines will largely be on the progress, or lack thereof, on U.S. and China trade talks

Dismal Corn demand has continued to offset production threats in the Midwest
Friday’s COT report showed funds sold 28,043 Soybean futures contracts
Corn and Soybean Crop Progress will be out after the close
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)
 

Fundamentals: December corn futures continued to bleed lower on Friday, taking prices to their lowest levels in nearly two months. Dismal demand has continued to offset production threats in the Midwest, this has kept the funds comfortable in their growing net short position. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold another 10,816 contracts, extending their net short position to 120,536 contracts. For those of you keeping track, Crop Progress will be out after the close and is expected to show the corn harvest is 78% complete, well behind the 5-year average, 92%. December options expire at the end of the week which means the volume will shift into the March contract.

Technicals: The market continues to trend lower with funds pouncing on the lack of bullish news to spark short covering. As mentioned last week, we want to be friendly this market but there the technical landscape doesn’t warrant it, keeping our bias at Bearish/Neutral. First support comes in from 366-368 ¼...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day. 

 

Soybeans (January)

Fundamentals: January soybeans broke down on Monday and spent the rest of the week consolidating as market participants searched for new news to offer more conviction in the direction of the market. With harvest nearing 90% complete, headlines will largely be on the progress, or lack thereof, on the U.S. and China trade talks. Though we don’t expect anything substantive any time soon, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a date set soon, for another meeting. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 28,043 contracts, trimming their net long position to 25,460.

Technicals: Last Monday’s trade did a lot of technical damage, tempering our bearish bias and putting us at “Neutral/Bullish”. Technical support was tested and held; we had defined that as 909 ½-913. A break and close below here would put the bears in the driver’s seat, confirming a bearish head and shoulders, opening the door for a break below the psychologically significant $9.00 handle.

 

Chicago Wheat (December)

Fundamentals: Chicago wheat futures tried to stage a rally last week but failed to find enough new news to encourage additional buyers to step in. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds holding a near a net flat position. We will continue to keep an eye on the broader grain complex if that weakness persists it may be tough for wheat to avoid.

Technicals: The market failed against technical resistance last week, we had defined that as 515 ¼-517 ¼. This failure marked lower highs and has taken us to lower lows in the early morning session. Prices are testing our 4-star support pocket from 496 ¼-500 ¾. A break and close below here could open the door for a “whoosh” lower. Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day. 

 

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