Traders Attention Will Be On Tomorrow’s WASDE Report

Reports that the US and China have agreed to roll back tariffs
Traders look for clues in tomorrow’s WASDE report
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)
 

Fundamentals: Corn futures worked lower yesterday on broad-based selling in the grain sector, spurred by headlines that suggested the Phase-1 signing would be pushed back to December (was anyone really expecting anything to get done?). In the overnight session, there were reports that the US and China have agreed to roll back tariffs, this provided some strength. The jawboning is beyond exhausting at this point. Export sales this morning came in at 487,900 metric tons, down 11% from last week but still 15% above the 4-week average. If South America's bins are starting to run dry, we could start to see export demand in the states pick up in the coming months. Tomorrow’s WASDE report is the big-ticket item, early estimates are yields to be near 167.2 bushels per acre, down 1.2 from the previous report. Production estimates are coming in near 13.604 billion bushels, down from 13.779 in last month’s report.

Technicals: The market worked to the lower end of our support pocket; we have defined that as 377. This represents the breakout point from the September 30th quarterly stocks report, support from the October 10th USDA report, a key retracement, and the 50-day moving average. This is a MUST hold area to round out the week, a failure to hold ground here could take us back into the mid 360’s...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day. 

 

Soybeans (January)

Fundamentals: The market softened up yesterday on the delay of a potential Phase-1 trade deal. The market has tried to claw back some of those losses this morning on headlines that the US and China have come to an agreement to roll back tariffs. The market has grown tired of the constant jawboning and positive spin, which can be seen in price action, beans rallied all of 3-5 cents on the headline. Export sales this morning came in at 1,807,400 metric tons, 41% above the 4-week average. Most of the attention will be on tomorrow’s WASDE report, out at 11 am CT. Early estimates for yield come in near 46.6 bushels per acre, down from 46.9 in the previous report. Production is estimated to be at 3.512 billion bushels, down from the 3.550 in last month’s report.

Technicals: The market's failure against our pivot pocket earlier in the week has brought prices back towards our technical support pocket, 921-928 ½. A close below here would neutralize our bias but would not be enough to flip to bearish. The bulls need to see a close above...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day. 

 

Chicago Wheat (December)

Fundamentals: Export sales this morning came in at 360,600 metric tons, down 27% from last week and 14% below the 4-week average. Tomorrow’s WASDE report is the big-ticket item, earl estimates are for US ending stocks to be near 1.030 billion bushels, down from 1.043 in last month’s report. World ending stocks estimates range from 285.1-288.5 million metric tons.

Technicals: The market shot higher yesterday but failed to hold on to those gains through the close, finishing the day right near our pivot pocket at 517 ¼. If the bulls can defend this pocket, we could see a run back towards 535-538 ...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day. 

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