Corn Harvest Is 52% Complete and 23% Behind Five-Year Average

December corn futures were softer to start the week
January soybean futures managed to hold their ground yesterday, despite weakness in corn and wheat
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)

Fundamentals: December corn futures were softer to start the week as the lack of bullish headlines coupled with harvest pressure was too much for the bulls to overcome. Crop Progress was released after the close, showing corn conditions unchanged at 58% good/excellent. Harvest is said to be 52% complete, this is 2% behind expectations and 23% behind the five-year average. On deck is the weekly ethanol report and exports, but traders will quickly move past that and look to Friday’s WASDE report as the big-ticket item. Early estimates are yields to be near 167.2 bushels per acre, down 1.2 from the previous report. Production estimates are coming in near 13.604 billion bushels, down from 13.779 in last months report.

Technicals: Yesterday’s move lower wasn’t what the bulls wanted to see, but not all hope is lost. Technical support remains intact and we feel that it still represents a good value, we have defined that pocket as 377-381 ½. A close below here...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day. 

 

Soybeans (January)

Fundamentals: January soybean futures managed to hold their ground yesterday, despite weakness in corn and wheat. We noted in yesterday’s interview with RFD-TV that the fundamental backdrop and money-flow has continued to be better for soybeans. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that harvest is now 75% complete, inline with expectations and just 12% behind the five-year average. Attention will now turn to Friday’s WASDE report. Early estimates for yield come in near 46.6 bushels per acre, down from 46.9 in the previous report. Production is estimated to be at 3.512 billion bushels, down from the 3.550 in last months report.

Technicals: The technicals for soybeans remain very constructive in the near term, so long as the bulls can continue to defend technical support, defined as 921-928 ½. A close below here would neutralize our bias but would not be enough to flip to bearish. Our pivot pocket from 940-941 ½ was tested yesterday...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day. 

 

Chicago Wheat (December)

Fundamentals: Chicago wheat futures were under pressure yesterday due to technical selling and a lack of new bullish news on the wires. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the winter wheat crop is 89% planted, 2% behind expectations but 6% ahead of last year’s pace. Crop conditions came in at 57% good/excellent, 1% better than expectations.

Technicals: The market is failing to reclaim ground above our pivot pocket from 515 ¼-517 ¼. We have noted over the last week that a failure here could be the beginning of a bearish head and shoulders pattern. This week will be very important for setting the tone on the technical landscape going forward....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day. 

 

About the Author

Blue Line Futures, is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm offering discounted personalized service and futures and commodity research.