Concerns Over Dismal Corn Demand Continue To Trump Overproduction Concerns

Soybean harvest at 62% complete
Grain traders fundamental focus is largely on the harvest
Corn Crop Progress report 41% harvested, well behind the five-year average, 61%
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)

Fundamentals: December corn futures have been drifting lower for the last two weeks as concerns over dismal demand continue to trump concerns overproduction. Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 381,000 metric tons, below the low end of estimates 450,000-650,000. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed harvest is 41% harvested, well behind the five-year average, 61%. With another blast of winter weather scheduled to sweep through the Midwest, concerns over maturity in some states lingers. Wisconsin is only 74% mature, Michigan 75%, North Dakota 77%, and Ohio is at 82%. WASDE and Crop Production reports will be out next Friday, estimates for that will start to pick up in the back half of the week.

Technicals: The market is slowly but surely making its way towards our four-star support pocket, a MUST hold for the bull camp through the rest of the week. We have defined that pocket as ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day. 

 

Soybeans (January)

Fundamentals: Soybeans were the strong link in yesterday’s session but are failing to find their footing in the early morning trade. Export inspections came in at 1,568,000 metric tons, above the top end of estimates. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean harvest at 62% complete, the second slowest pace since 2008; in 2009 we were at 46% for the same time. WASDE and Crop Production reports will be out next Friday, estimates for that will start to pick up in the back half of the week. The wild card continues to be “positive trade talks”. The phase 1 deal could be inked as early as November 15th when the two sides meet at a summit in Chile (we are not holding our breath).

Technicals: The market failed at our pivot pocket, we defined this in yesterday’s report as 940-941 ½. This has opened the door for some minor pressure as prices retreat towards first support at ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day. 

 

Chicago Wheat (December)

Fundamentals: Chicago wheat retreated yesterday but has found some support in the early morning trade. Export inspections came in at 523,000 metric tons, within the range of expectations. Yesterday’s crop progress showed winter wheat ratings at 56% good/excellent, 1% below expectations. The crop is said to be 85% planted, 2% behind the expected pace.

Technicals: The market broke below our pivot pocket which led to a continuation lower, now the market is flirting with that same area. If the bulls cannot achieve a close back above ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day. 

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