Crop Progress Will Be Out After Close, Wheat Futures Staged Huge Rally Last Week

Emphasis on money-flow and technicals
Wheat futures broke out above technical resistance
Monitoring harvest progress
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)

Corn (December)

Fundamentals: Corn was softer last week as bullish headlines dissipated and buyers looked to lock in gains on what was a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event the previous Friday (winter storm/trade talks). Crop progress will be out after the close, market participants are looking for harvest to be 33% complete, 9% behind the 5-year average. Harvest reports will continue to be a key focus over the coming weeks, there seems to be a trend of underwhelming yields. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds are short 66,141 contracts, a reduction of 24,527 contracts.

Technicals: The market spent much of last week's trade retreating, which we actually view as constructive so long as the bulls can defend technical support. We have defined our pivot pocket as 390-392 ¾ (previously resistance). If the bulls can continue to defend...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed out each morning. 

 

Soybeans (November)

Fundamentals: November soybean futures traded in a wide range last week as traders took profits early in the week but looked to step back in, in the back half of the week. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought 42,528 contracts, expanding their net long position to 49,029. The news wires have been slow over the last week, but the money flow continues to be constructive for the technical landscape. Crop Progress will be out after the close, estimates are for harvest to be 38% complete, 26% behind the five-year average.

Technicals: Higher lows and higher highs have been the trend for the last month and a half, taking prices to their highest levels since the June highs, 948-950. If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above this pocket, we could see an extension towards 963 ¼-969 ¼....

 

Chicago Wheat (December)

Fundamentals: Chicago wheat futures staged a huge rally last week, much of that on the back of technical short covering. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought 8,573 contracts, trimming their net short position to 10,564 contracts. The U.S. dollar has been getting the snot kicked out of it for the last two weeks, a positive tailwind for the wheat market.

Technicals: The market launched higher last week, taking us to resistance from 538 ¼-543. This pocket represents the July highs and the 50% retracement from the contract highs to the contract lows (middle of the range). With prices testing resistance and the RSI in overbought territory, we could see the rally halted.

Bias: Neutral... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed out each morning. 

 

 

About the Author

Blue Line Futures, is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm offering discounted personalized service and futures and commodity research.