Cooler Weather And Possible Freeze In North Not Adding Weather Premium To Grain Market

Corn harvest is 15% complete, 4% behind already lagging expectations
Weather is still a concern for some northern areas
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)

Fundamentals: Yesterday’s crop progress report showed good/excellent ratings at 56%, 1% below expectations. Corn harvest is 15% complete, 4% behind already lagging expectations, 19% (the 5-year average is 27%). Forecasts show cooler temperatures and a possible freeze in the northern corn belt, as of now it doesn’t seem that the market is pricing much premium in for that. Thursday’s WASDE report will be the big-ticket item, we will have estimates out in the coming days.

Technicals: We wish we had something new and exciting to say about the technical developments, but it has been nothing but consolidation after last week’s rally and failure against our resistance pocket from 392 ¾-394. A breakout above here could spark another round of fund short-covering, the next objective would be 412 ¾-417 ¼. On the support side of things, 377-381 ½ is the pocket the bulls need to defend.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

Soybeans (November)

Fundamentals: November soybean futures traded both sides of unchanged as buyers and sellers have found a near term market equilibrium near 915. Crop progress that came out after the close showed good/excellent ratings at 53%, 2% below expectations. Cooler weather with a possible freeze in the northern grain belt doesn’t seem to be adding much premium to the market, this is one of this week’s wild cards. The other wild card is Thursday’s WASDE report, we will have estimates out in the coming days. Chinese trade negotiators are in Washington, we were anticipating things to be tame, nothing exciting but no regressions. From what we’ve heard, there have been some regressions.

Technicals: The market has been flat for the last four sessions, so there’s nothing new and exciting to report on that front. The market has been treading water around our resistance since last Tuesday, which comes in at 915 ¼ which represents the 50% retracement (middle of the range) from the contract highs to the contract lows. Significant support comes in from 899-906 ¾, this would be the pocket to look at getting long exposure back on (if you reduced against resistance).

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

 

Chicago Wheat (December)

Fundamentals: Chicago wheat futures tried to firm up but fell flat yesterday as the market remains in consolidation mode ahead of this Thursday’s WASDE report, we will have estimates out in the coming days. Spring wheat harvest is all but complete at 91%. Winter wheat planting is 52% complete, 2% behind expectations.

Techncials: The market remains stuck in between our support and resistance pockets, so there’s nothing new to report on that front. We have defined first technical support as 483-486 ¾. If you want to be long the market, this is not a terrible first entry point. A break and close below 476 ¼ could be trend changing. We moved to neutral in yesterday’s report and remain there today.

Bias: Neutral

Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
 

 

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