Harvest Time - Grain Markets Get Harvest Progress This Afternoon

Pay attention to Thursday’s WASDE report
November soybean futures rallied on the back of a friendly report last week
Weather is still a concern for some northern areas
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)

Fundamentals: December corn futures had an impressive run to start last week’s trade, ending with a healthy pullback off technical resistance. All eyes this week will be on Thursday’s WASDE report, we will have estimates in the coming days. Money flow has been constructive for the better part of the last month, Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought back nearly 34,000 contracts, trimming their net short position to 126,174 contracts. Weather is still a concern for some northern areas. Crop progress will be out this afternoon, estimates are for corn to be 17% harvested.

Technicals: The technical landscape remains little changed from last week. Resistance was tested and held, which comes in from 392 ¾-394. A breakout above here could spark another round of fund short covering. On the support side of things, 377-381 ½ is the pocket the bulls need to defend.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

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Soybeans Futures (November)

Fundamentals: November soybean futures rallied on the back of a friendly report last week, keeping the trend of positive money flow intact. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought back nearly 33,000 contracts, trimming their net short position to 8,730 contracts. All eyes this week will be on Thursday’s WASDE report, we will have estimates in the coming days. Crop progress will be out after the close, expectations are for harvest to be 13% complete.

Technicals: The market ran up to our resistance pocket and has been treading water around there since last Tuesday, which comes in at 915 ¼ which represents the 50% retracement (middle of the range) from the contract highs to the contract lows. Significant support comes in from 899-906 ¾, this would be the pocket to look at getting long exposure back on (if you reduced against resistance).

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

 

Wheat Futures (December)

Fundamentals: Chicago wheat futures were little changed from the previous week as the market looks for new news. Potentially that comes this week with Thursday’s WASDE report, we will have estimates out in the coming days. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 2,753 contracts, expanding their net short position to 21,514 contracts. On the Kansas City contract, funds bought 3,417 contracts, trimming their net short position to 32,780.

Technicals: The market was technically sound last week, trading between our support and resistance pockets, keeping those levels intact for this week’s trade. We have defined first technical support as 483-486 ¾. If you want to be long the market, this is not a terrible first entry point. A break and close below 476 ¼ could be trend changing. We moved to neutral in yesterday’s report and remain there today.

Bias: Neutral

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