Traders Focus on Earnings and Economic Data, S&P is down 3.5% this week , Better Earnings Could Give Another Leg Higher

October 3, 2019 07:45 AM
Earnings must start to paint a good picture
S&P is down 3.5% this week
Odds of a cut later this month rising from 45% to 75%
Stock Market Update for Traders


E-mini S&P Futures (December) 


Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2880.50, down 57.25

Fundamentals: Yesterday’s bloodbath is trying to stabilize, and price action is modestly higher at best. Economic data is in focus early and it was a bleak start after European Services and Composite PMIs came in below expectations. Eurozone Retail Sales was in-line MoM. U.S Weekly Jobless Claims are up at 7:30 am CT and this comes after a disappointing ADP Payroll Report, not so much because of September but because of August’s revision lower. This certainly leaves a sour taste in the minds of traders and investors ahead of tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payroll and after a dismal ISM Manufacturing Tuesday. Services and Composite PMIs are due at 8:45 am CT, but the big reads of the session come at 9:00 am CT with ISM Non-Manufacturing and Factory Orders. Fed members will attempt to soothe worries, Fed Governor Quarles speaks at 7:30 am CT, Cleveland Fed President Mester is at 11:10 am CT and Fed Vice Chair Clarida takes to the tape after the close at 5:35 pm CT. At this point, short of rolling out QE4, how much can they really do? Our narrative has been this market is making a transition from Fed easing dependence to stronger data dependence and the data has left it out to dry. The S&P is down 3.5% this week with the odds of a cut later this month rising from 45% to 75%.

Deteriorating growth around the world and a seasonally weaker time of year for Crude Oil has weighed on the Energy sector, Bill Baruch joined CNBC’s Closing Bell yesterday to discuss just this. If not the economic data, earnings must start to paint a better picture. PepsiCo, a leader all year, topped earnings estimates this morning and gained as much as 3% before settling in. Constellation Brands is also due ahead of the bell. Costco, another stock posting hockey stick gains this year, is due following the close. After today, the market is left with a bit of a gap, the heavy hitters and banks don’t begin reporting until the week after next.

Technicals: The tape turned sharply lower yesterday and has not been able to dig itself out. Major three-star support in the S&P at 2889-2993 is working to buoy the tape for now but it was the breakdown in the NQ below major three-star support at the 7600 area from what we referenced as a more consolidated move lower that got the party started. Our momentum indicators align to bring us first key resistance levels at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to get our entire report emailed each morning including Crude Oil and Gold with our complete technical outlook and actionable bias and levels. 


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