Grain Traders Wait For Today's Quarterly Stocks Report

Position squaring ahead of quarterly stocks report
Weather premium is non-existent
Tight trading ranges in grains
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)

Fundamentals: December corn futures have been trading sideways for the better part of the last two weeks as market participants continue to wait for new news and clarity. Today’s quarterly stocks report could be that catalyst to give the market new direction. Estimates range from 2.10-2.52 billion bushels. Crop progress will be out after the close, expectations are for harvest to be 14% complete, 5% behind the five-year average. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds short 159,890 contracts.

Technicals: The technical landscape has been quiet recently, leaving many of our support and resistance levels unchanged from last week. The bull camp has the advantage so long as they can defend technical support from 363-366. First resistance remains intact from 377-381, this pocket represents a key retracement and the top of the range after breaking down last month. If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above here, we could see prices march towards the gap at 392 ¾.

Bias: Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Bullish


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Soybeans Futures (November)

Fundamentals: Soybean futures have firmed up to start the week but the bull camp will want to see follow through on the floor open. Estimates for today’s quarterly stocks report range from .940-1.040 billion bushels. China has been coming back into the market, but we need to see this become more of a trend and avoid cancellations. Friday’s commitment of trader’s report showed funds short 41,688 contracts.

Technicals: Beans continue to hold ground in the 880’s, a positive sign for the pull camp. If the markets starts working out above 900 we could see another wave of short covering take us towards 912-915 ¼, this pocket represents the 200 day moving average and the 50% retracement, or the middle of the range from contract highs to contract lows. Our bias remains outright Bullish.

Bias: Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Bullish


Wheat Futures (December)

Fundamentals: Wheat futures worked higher in the back half of last week’s trade as short covering becomes more of a trend. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds short 18,770 contracts and short over 36,000 in the Kansas City contract. Estimates for today’s quarterly stocks report average at 2.318 billion bushels. Crop progress is expected to show winter wheat plantings at 38%.

Technicals: The technical landscape continues to look very constructive. Higher lows and higher highs have been the trend over the last month, so long as the bulls defend 469 ½-470 they remain in control. A move out above 492 ½ would mark higher highs and potentially spark a run back above the technically and psychologically significant $5.00 handle.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish


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