Grain Futures Position Squaring Ahead of Monday’s Quarterly Stocks Report

Weather premium is non-existent
Position squaring ahead of Monday’s quarterly stocks report
Tight trading ranges in grains
Grain futures market update

Grain futures market update

Corn Futures (December)

Fundamentals: Export sales came in at a disappointing 494,000 metric tons. That coupled with some position squaring ahead of Monday’s quarterly stocks report and the end of the month brought prices back near technical support. Estimates range from 2.10-2.52 billion bushels. Weather premium is non-existent, this would be a wild card for prices.

Technicals: Unless you’ve been successfully trading the 3 +/- cent range we’ve been in; it has been a pretty boring two weeks. Boring is better than bad, any day. Technicals remain constructive so long as the bulls can continue to defend technical support from 363-366. First resistance remains intact from 377-381, this pocket represents a key retracement and the top of the range after breaking down last month. If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above here, we could see prices march towards the gap at 392 ¾.

Bias: Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Bullish

 

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Soybeans Futures (November)

Soybeans (November)

Fundamentals: Export sales came in at 1,038,000 metric tons, another strong number. This is the second week of strong numbers, but three makes a trend. Estimates for Monday’s stocks report range from .940-1.040 billion bushels. U.S. and China are set to “resume” talks. We still aren’t expecting to see much substance until closer to the election. It has been reported and confirmed that they have been buyers of U.S. Ag products recently, but we believe that is more out of necessity than goodwill.

Technicals: Beans continue to hold ground in the 880’s, a positive sign for the bull camp. If the markets start working out above 900 we could see another wave of short-covering take us towards 912-915 ¼, this pocket represents the 200-day moving average and the 50% retracement, or the middle of the range from contract highs to contract lows. Our bias remains outright Bullish.

Bias: Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Bullish

 

Wheat Futures (December)

Fundamentals: Export sales came in at 283,200 metric tons, a rather blah number. Estimates for Monday’s stocks report range from 2.200-2.450 billion bushels. Keep in mind that Monday is also the end of the month so we could see additional position squaring leading up to that.

Technicals: The technical landscape continues to look very constructive. Higher lows and higher highs have been the trend over the last month, so long as the bulls defend 469 ½-470 they remain in control. A move out above 492 ½ would mark higher highs and potentially spark a run back above the technically and psychologically significant $5.00 handle.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

 

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